Monday, June 10, 2013

The Core-Periphery Model

What assets will the core/Empire protect? Those of the core. What will be sacrificed? The periphery.


In periods of crisis, scarcity and instability, key resources flow from the periphery to the core. We can witness this in plants, which respond to drought by sacrificing peripheral foliage (that fueled growth in times of abundance) to save the core functions necessary to surviving the drought.

This core-periphery model has a number of interesting dynamics. One is that expanding the periphery yields diminishing returns, and so these high-cost, low-yield assets are jettisoned first just as a matter of prudent risk/asset management.


One example is a farming community based in a narrow valley served by a river. Crop production can be increased by carrying water up the sides of the valley to irrigate new high-maintenance terraced fields, but the farther the water must be carried, the lower the net energy gain of the crop.

In eras of scarce water, the marginal upland fields will be abandoned. In other words, systems shrink (or in the worst-case scenario, fail) from the periphery to the core.

We can see this dynamic is the Eurozone credit/debt crisis: the core-nation banks in Germany, the Netherlands and France feasted in times of plenty on periphery nations' sovereign debt and housing bubbles, reaping enormous profits by extending credit to periphery countries and their banking/housing sectors.

When collateral suddenly declined/became scarce and the yield on expanding debt reversed from positive to negative, the core Eurozone nations protected their banks at the expense of the periphery countries' banks and sovereign debt.

I covered this in depth (thanks to correspondent David P.) earlier this year:


Put another way: credit panics start in the periphery because that's where the risk and overshoot of debt to collateral are highest.

There is another overlay to the core-periphery model: neocolonialism. I explained this in The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model (May 24, 2012). The classic colonial model is a simple core-periphery dynamic: the core nation extracts commodities and low-cost labor from its colonies (the periphery) and sells its own high-margin manufactured goods to the captured-markets of its colonies.

It's tough to beat this wealth-accumulation scheme, but as overt colonization fell into disfavor/became too costly to profitably maintain, the model shifted to a financialization-neocolonial model in which credit from the core nation establishes a very real financial/political dominance in periphery nations.

In the Eurozone, we see how the assets and income streams of the periphery nations are transferred to the core nations' banks by one means or another--in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank and its proxies are being used as intermediaries.

American hegemony of the global financial system creates political, diplomatic and "soft" power. No wonder the stock markets of financial core countries such as the U.S., Germany, France and Japan have risen: global capital is exiting high-risk periphery nations and seeking the relative safety of dollar and euro-based assets.

In our pastoral valley analogy, it boils down to this: where do you want to control arable land--next to the river, or halfway up the mountainside?

The Pareto Distribution also plays a role in the core-periphery model. As I noted way back in 2007 at the height of housing bubble 1.0 (bubble 2.0 is now playing in housing markets everywhere), the core-periphery model of extending credit to skim ever-riskier returns leads to increasing vulnerability to Pareto-distribution effects: Can 4% of Homeowners Sink the Entire Market? (February 21, 2007)

The 4% of subprime homeowners who defaulted not only popped the housing bubble, they also triggered a meltdown in the global financial system. This dynamic can shuffle the core-periphery rings in a disconcerting fashion: countries that considered themselves securely in the core (for example, Spain and Italy) discover they're now in the inner ring of the periphery--still too valuable to sacrifice but no longer core.

We also see the core-periphery model in urban-suburban demographics. The efficiencies and amenities of city centers are more attractive to younger households than distant exurbs with expansive yards and long commutes. Even if gasoline were less costly, the time and hassle factor of commuting, multiple-auto ownership, etc. makes the core more attractive than the periphery.

Cash-strapped cities faced with difficult decisions on where to trim services inevitably choose to protect services to the high-density core and cut them in the lower-density periphery.

Proximity to the core lowers costs and risks: where do you want to control arable land--next to the river, or halfway up the mountainside? Yes, your land adjacent to the river may get flooded from time to time, but that risk is more than offset by the benefits in times of water scarcity.

What assets will the core/Empire protect? Those of the core. What will be sacrificed? The periphery. 



Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify or understand. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:

go to print edition1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability
3. Diminishing returns
4. Centralization
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy

Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).

We are not powerless. Not accepting responsibility and being powerless are two sides of the same coin: once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.

Kindle edition: $9.95       print edition: $24 on Amazon.com
To receive a 20% discount on the print edition: $19.20 (retail $24), follow the link, open a Createspace account and enter discount code SJRGPLAB. (This is the only way I can offer a discount.)



Thank you, Scott S. ($5/month), for your superbly generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.Thank you, Dan T. ($10/month), for your stupendously generous re-subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


Our Privacy Policy:


Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative). If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.


PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS


This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel’s General Data Protection Notice. https://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/


Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.


Regarding Cookies:


This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.


Our Commission Policy:

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP