Friday, September 02, 2016

The High Cost of Honesty in a Sea of Low-Cost BS

As the cost of propagating BS drops to near-zero, the value of honestly achieved analyses and conclusions rises proportionately.
Longtime correspondent Michael M. recently recommended this long-form article  The Market For Lemons, The Market For Bullshit, And The Great Cascading Credence Crash Of 2016.
The article discusses the soaring market for self-serving narratives, rigged statistics like the jobs report and unemployment, and officially sanctioned PR campaigns aimed at creating approval (or passive acceptance of) a corrupt, phony status quo.
All bubbles, even the one in distributing BS, eventually pop, decimating all who relied on the bubble for their livelihood.
Michael's comments were thought-provoking:

"Honesty requires more time to analyze if bullshit is being peddled and customized towards you (after you have honestly presented your opinion)."

"Technology is primarily being used to replicate bullshit quicker and at almost zero cost."


Michael had previously sent the following comments in response to a link in Musings 27 on honesty:

"THE ABILITY TO BE HONEST is a very good point. I understand it as having the strength  and time (!) to carry the consequences of being honest.

Being honest makes you more vulnerable, for as you become predictable, you are easier to game and you have fewer options to respond to weird/ crazy/ offensive behavior.

You need extra time to constantly ask yourself if offers or opinions presented to you (after you have honestly presented your opinion) are true, or marketing versions (BS) that have been tailored for you."

The gist of the "market for BS" article is that BS is now so cheap to distribute and so over-abundant that the "market for BS", i.e. its believability, will soon crash.

Our first reaction might be to cheer such a loss of confidence in the BS narratives that support the status quo, but the author of the article goes to some pains to show that widespread acceptance of BS narratives has positive attributes:
1.  we all share a common ground of narratives that enable a variety of shared goals and transactions
2.  these transactions are generally low-cost because the cost of challenging the narratives has been reduced.

Put another way: a world in which BS has depreciated to zero is a world in which everything must challenged and the cost of sorting truth and honesty from BS is permanently high.

Once faith in BS drops to zero, every opinion is equally suspect and equally "true" until costly  investigation proves otherwise.

Michael's comments invite an exploration of the high costs of honesty in a system in which technology enables the nearly-free propagation of BS and the nearly-free automation of BS responses to opinions that were achieved by honest (and therefore high-cost) effort.
In this way, BS is like cheating in school: the cost of cheating is low and the rewards if the "mark" (the teacher) accepts the BS as real are high.  In comparison, the cost of learning the material thoroughly is very high and the rewards (a good grade) have been depreciated by BS (grade inflation to quell student-parent complaints about low grades--everyone gets a B for showing up and BS often earns a A).

The ability to form honestly reached conclusions is costly in terms of time and effort, and it's "cheaper" to accept BS. As the author of the article observed, just as Gresham's Law holds that bad money will drive out good money (as people hoard the good money and use the bad money as quickly as possible), BS drives out honesty and honestly reached conclusions.

Michael also points out that the cost of maintaining honesty is high, as media and technology inundate us with BS designed to persuade everyone in our profile of views/purchases.

What can we conclude from the high cost of honesty in a world of nearly-free BS?

1. One way to lower the cost of maintaining honesty is reduce the inputs of BS from a fire hose to a trickle by limiting exposure to both mass and targeted media.

2. Decentralized, distributed systems such as bitcoin enable trusted transactions without the high costs of centralized verification, authentication, etc.

3. Dealing exclusively with honest people and truthful institutions lowers the cost of being honest.

4. As the cost of propagating BS drops to near-zero, the value of honestly achieved analyses and conclusions rises proportionately.

5. The ability to remain honest in a sea of BS is akin to holding gold coins in an economy of lead coins coated with a microscopic layer of gold to appear "solid gold."
This essay was drawn from Musings Report 31. The Musings Reports are emailed weekly to subscribers ($5/month) and major contributors ($50+ annually). If you'd like to support this blog, please consider subscribing (links below or in the right sidebar). 


My new book is #9 on Kindle short reads -> politics and social science: Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition)For more, please visit the book's website.

NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.
Thank you, Eugene S.-P. ($5/month), for your monstrously generous subscription to this site-- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


Our Privacy Policy:


Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative). If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.


PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS


This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel’s General Data Protection Notice. https://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/


Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.


Regarding Cookies:


This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.


Our Commission Policy:

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP