Thursday, December 30, 2021

Last Chance to Get Out Before the Crash

The interesting feature of the 'last chance to get out' is nobody sees it until after the crash has done its damage.

Every asset bubble has a last chance to get out before the crash point that becomes obvious in the aftermath. But at the time, this last opportunity to exit before the wipeout is difficult to identify for a number of reasons.

One is the general mood at the top of bubbles is extreme confidence that there are further gains just ahead. Everyone who attempted to identify the top of the rally has been proven wrong, and everyone who shorted the rally (i.e. bet on a decline) has been wiped out.

The most anyone is willing to say publicly is that risk is elevated, some day there will be a reckoning, etc., all of which is boilerplate everyone has heard for months or even years.

The last chance to sell doesn't give itself away; technically it's at best ambiguous as all the conventional topping signals tend to be muddied, enabling Bulls to declare the top is far from in and bearish signals have been nullified.

The classic last chance follows an apparent breakout to new highs that exceeds previous resistance. In retrospect, the breakout proves to be false, but at the time it's clear to Bulls that this is yet another breakout and therefore a reliable signal for more gains ahead.

Everyone who sold on downlegs is anxious to get back in and so every dip is reversed by buy the dip buyers who have been handsomely rewarded for buying previous dips.

Technically, traditional signs of a top such as double tops and head and shoulders are mooted by the advance. The rally exceeds whatever levels were considered bearish triggers and so the consensus that further advances are essentially guaranteed finds sufficient technical support for even skittish traders to continue to be all-in the market.

The first decline off the last chance to exit is bought, but the rally falters. The buy-the-dippers dismiss this as an anomaly and buy this second dip. That too falters and once the third buy-the-dip has failed to rally back to previous highs, many buy-the-dippers have been wiped out and the momentum of buying slackens.

When it's clear buy-the-dip has failed, the selling becomes a self-reinforcing avalanche and the market crashes.

None of this is visible until it's too late to exit with profits in hand. By the time the banquet of consequences has been cleared, the majority of the believers in the inevitability of more gains just ahead have been wiped out by the crash that they reckoned was impossible.

Is this the last chance to get out before the crash? Bulls are confident for reasons that have worked astoundingly well ("It's all about flows, nothing else matters," "because the Fed," etc.) and Bears have been reduced to mumbling about elevated risk.

The interesting feature of last chance to get out is nobody sees it until after the crash has done its damage. Only when it's too late does it become painfully obvious.




My new book is now available at a 20% discount this month: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $8.95, print $20)

If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.



Recent Videos/Podcasts:

The Central Bank System Has Failed, It's Time To Redraw America’s Grand Strategy (39 min)

Jay Taylor and I discuss why Inflation is a Runaway Freight Train (21 minutes)

A Grand Strategy to Address the Global Crisis (54 min., with Richard Bonugli)

XI's GAMBIT: A Bridge Too Far? (41 min, with Gordon Long)


My recent books:

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $25) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 Kindle, $10 print, ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 Kindle, $8.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free



Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.




NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.

Thank you, Venessa K. ($20), for your much-appreciated generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

 

Thank you, John D. ($54), for your splendidly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.


Thank you, Marc Z. ($5/month), for your monumentally generous pledge to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

 

Thank you, Joey B. ($54), for your awesomely generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


Our Privacy Policy:


Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative). If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.


PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS


This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel’s General Data Protection Notice. https://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/


Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.


Regarding Cookies:


This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.


Our Commission Policy:

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP