We're being assured by Pfizer and Moderna that their Covid vaccines are 95% effective and are safe enough to be injected into hundreds of millions of people. Before accepting these extremely consequential claims, let's look at the actual testing process and results.
In the Pfizer trial, half of the 44,000 volunteers received the vaccine and the other half got a placebo shot. Then the researchers waited around to see how many of the volunteers randomly came down with Covid. Pfizer reported that out of 170 cases of Covid, 162 were in the placebo group and eight were in the vaccine group.
So a total of 0.386% of the 44,000 volunteers came down with Covid by means unknown, and this tiny sample is the foundation of grandiose claims of 95% effectiveness? Note the incredibly small sample size. If even 3% of the test group had contracted Covid, the sample size would be 1,320 people--still a small number but considerably more persuasive than 1/3rd of 1% (170).
These results tell us very little about what we really need to know. Allow me to propose a test protocol that would tell us what we need to know.
Take 100 politicians, authorities and Big Pharma executives, give them two doses of vaccine and then have them serve 4-hour shifts in a crowded ward of severely ill Covid patients for a week, without any masks or protective gear. In other words, expose them to sustained, intimate contact with patients with severe cases of Covid, spending hours every day in a soup of virus.
If 100 people took the measles vaccine, would they hesitate to expose themselves to measles patients? No, because the measles vaccine is close to 100% effective. If the politicians and Big Pharma executives refused to participate in this trial, that would tell us all we really need to know about the effectiveness of their Covid vaccine.
But the trial isn't finished--not by a long shot. We need to know if the vaccinated people can still transmit the virus to unvaccinated people. So at the end of their shift, the 100 politicians, authorities and Big Pharma execs clean up and then crowd into a poorly ventilated bar with 100 unvaccinated volunteers, singing, dancing and breathing the same fetid air for two hours every night.
Next, repeat this trial protocol with another 100 people, 50 of whom have chronic conditions such as hypertension, metabolic disorders or COPD, and 50 who are 65 years of age or older. The only way we'll really know if the vaccine is effective for at-risk people is to do a rigorous test like this.
Third, repeat the trial protocol with 100 people who have autoimmune disorders or family histories of autoimmune disorders. There is no other way to discover the potentially harmful consequences of the vaccine on those with a propensity for autoimmune disorders other than a rigorous test of the vaccine, i.e. sustained exposure to the virus over extended periods of time.
Lastly, monitor all the volunteers daily for six months for any side effects of the vaccine. It will take years to really know what side effects may manifest, but six months would at least establish a baseline of safety.
The results of these trials would tell us what we absolutely need to know before we blindly inject tens of millions of people with these vaccines:
1. Will the vaccine offer rock-solid protection against sustained exposure to the virus?
2. Can vaccinated people transmit the virus to unvaccinated people?
3. Will the vaccine protect at-risk people without causing any adverse effects in the most vulnerable groups, including those with autoimmune disorders?
Let's also be aware of the limits of any vaccine, even one that's 95% effective. No vaccine will stop the rapid advance of the virus in the next few months, nor will it stop America's healthcare system from unraveling: U.S. Healthcare Is Unraveling (November 17, 2020).
The virus won't stop health care personnel from burning out and becoming too exhausted to go to work.
Nor will it make all the post-Covid symptoms of those who came down with acute Covid go away. These conditions will demand extended care on an unprecedented scale.
Let's also ponder the potential effects on public trust should the vaccine fail to live up to its advertised effectiveness (95%), or some of those who get the vaccine come down with severe side-effects, or suffer the misfortune of dying from unknown causes.
Trust in institutions, authorities and Big Pharma is scraping the bottom of the barrel, and rushing these vaccines into mass use with extremely high expectations of efficacy is setting up the potential for a devastating loss of trust in the vaccines should they fail to live up to the claims of 100% safety and 95% effectiveness.
95% effectiveness sounds good, but 5% of 300 million Americans is still 15 million people. Toss in the potential for side-effects and there's still a roulette wheel spinning that every individual will have to consider. Behaviors will not time-travel back to 2019, even with a 95% effective vaccine.
A great many people will decline the vaccine until they see how the first wave of volunteers fare. Another consequential number will refuse the vaccine for any one of numerous reasons. A third group will put it off because doubts remain: maybe a new vaccine will be even better.
The vaccines are too little, too late: too little is known about their mass effectiveness and eventual side effects, and it's too late to affect the current advance of the virus, the long-term consequences of those with post-Covid conditions or reverse time to the era before behaviors changed.
If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
My new book is available! A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet 20% and 15% discounts (Kindle $7, print $17)
Read excerpts of the book for free (PDF).
The Story Behind the Book and the Introduction.
Recent Podcasts:
AxisofEasy Salon #30: Doc Searls on "That Weird House of Cards Feeling around Everything" (1 hr)
My COVID-19 Pandemic Posts
My recent books:
A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook coming soon) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).
The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).
Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.
|
Thank you, John G. ($10/month), for your outrageously generous pledge to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. |
Thank you, Darren ($5/month), for your marvelously generous pledge to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership. |