Monday, June 13, 2016

Work Won't Be Scarce--It's Paid Work That Will Be Scarce

We need a new economic model that recognizes the value of useful work that isn't necessarily profitable.
All the media chatter about work disappearing due to automation fails to draw the critical distinction between useful but unpaid work and profitable work.Since value (and profits/wages) flow to what's scarce, what matters is not the decline of useful work--there's plenty of that even in a society that has automated production--but the supply of paid work--work that is profitable and hence worthy of wages.
The great fantasy that many are depending on to solve the decline of paid work is taxing the robots and software that ate all the jobs. These taxes are supposed to pay for the Universal Basic Income that everyone will enjoy once work is automated and jobs become scarce.
The problem with the fantasy is that profits only flow to what's scarce, and as the tools of automation are commoditized, they will no longer be scarce. Once anyone can buy the same robots/software you own, where is your competitive advantage? If anyone on the planet with some capital can buy the same robots and software, where is the pricing power that is essential to reaping big profits?
Commoditization and globalization push profits down to near-zero. In a world of ever-cheaper, ever more abundant commoditized tools and software, it becomes much more difficult to generate increases in productivity and profits.
Those who dream of the the end of work forget that robots will only be purchased to perform profitable tasks. Much of human life is not profitable. For example, maintaining dedicated bikeways is useful work that serves the health and transportation needs of the community and economy.
There is no way to make this work profitable unless you charge bicyclists for using the bikeways, which defeats the purpose of the bikeways.
The typical response is that governments will pay for robots to maintain bikeways. But that leads right back to the decline of profits and paid labor: since government depends on profits and paid work for its revenues, as those decline, where will government get the revenue to make good all its vast promises for pensions, services, healthcare etc., and buy and maintain robots to do unprofitable but useful work such as maintain bikeways?
Take a look at these charts of productivity and income. Ultimately, increases in jobs, wages and profits flow from increases in productivity, which typically rises as a result of investments in better tools, training and processes.
Productivity struggles when investment stagnates, external costs (such as paying to remediate industrial pollution) reduce the available pool of capital/profits to invest, and new technologies are either limited in scope or do not scale well.
All these factors played a role in the 15-year stagnation of productivity from 1966 to 1980.
As computer/digital technologies improved and dropped in price (i.e. scaled up to impact the entire economy) and financialization (i.e. abundant credit and leverage, and the commoditization of financial assets) provided new sources of profits, productivity increased from 1981 to 2005.
Since then, growth of productivity has been in a freefall: financialization has reached diminishing returns, the technologies of automation have been commoditized, and globalization has opened up a vast new labor force and new places to invest capital.
In sum: what was once scarce is now abundant, and thus it no longer generates value or profits.
When new productivity tools were scarce (unique to American factories and workplaces) and required a growing labor force, productivity growth translated into higher wages. But when productivity growth relied on financial capital and processes and higher-level technical/managerial skills, the gains flowed only to those who owned these processes and skills: generally speaking, the wealthy owners of productive capital and the highly educated technocrat/managerial class (the top 5% and to a lesser degree, the top 20%.)
All of which is to say the model of paying wages for profitable work (or collecting taxes from profits and profitable work to pay government workers) is broken: not slightly broken, but fundamentally broken.
We need a new economic model that recognizes the value of useful work that isn't necessarily profitable, an economic system that creates money to pay those doing useful work at the bottom of the pyramid rather that creating money only for banks, corporations and financiers at the very top of the pyramid.
There is plenty of work that is useful but not profitable. Work won't disappear; it's paid work and profits that will become increasingly scarce. We need a new system that enables an abundance of paid work. This is the topic of my book, which Mark Jeftovik and I Discuss in this podcast (44:47).

A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All is now available as an Audible audio book.
My new book is #5 on Kindle short reads -> politics and social science: Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition)For more, please visit the book's website.

NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.
Thank you, Clay W. ($100), for your outrageously generous contribution to this site-- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.

Our Privacy Policy:

Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Adsense and Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative)
If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.

Our Commission Policy:

Though I earn a small commission on books and gift certificates purchased via links on my site, I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by 2008

Back to TOP