Sunday, December 04, 2016

A Disintegrative Winter: The Debt and Anti-Status Quo Super-Cycle Has Turned

With this list of manifestations in hand, we can practically write the headlines for 2017-2025 in advance.
How would you describe the social mood of the nation and world? Would anti-Establishment, anti-status quo, and anti-globalization be a good start? How about choking on fast-rising debt? Would stagnant growth, stagnant wages be a fair description? Or how about rising wealth/income inequality? Wouldn't rising disunity and political polarization be accurate?
These are all characteristics of the long-wave social-economic cycle that is entering the disintegrative (winter) phase. Souring social mood, loss of purchasing power, stagnating wages, rising inequality, devaluing currencies, rising debt, political polarization and elite disunity are all manifestations of this phase.
I have covered the cyclical nature of human social orders many times, most recently in We've Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty (July 18, 2016)
Historians David Hackett Fischer (The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History) and Peter Turchin (Ages of Discord) have assembled data and models for these long-term cycles.
Based on the history painstakingly assembled by Fischer and Turchin we can anticipate:
-- Ever higher prices for what I call the FEW Essentials: food, energy and water.
-- Ever larger government deficits which end in bankruptcy/repudiation of debts/new issue of currency.
-- Rising property/violent crime and illegitimacy.
-- Rising interest rates (until very recently this was considered "impossible").
-- Rising income inequality in favor of capital over labor.
-- Continued debasement of the currency.
-- Rising volatility of prices.
-- Rising political unrest and turmoil (see "Revolution").
With this list of manifestations in hand, we can practically write the headlines for 2017-2025 in advance.
Gordon Long and discuss these overlapping/ reinforcing social, political and economic cycles in a new video Cycles: Anti-Globalization and the Debt Super-Cycle. Here is a chart from the program that displays the rise of political polarization:
As for rising wealth/income inequality, the apex controls the money and thus the power:
Gordon and I also discuss the many different cyclical analyses that are now overlapping. Cyclical analyses based on demographics, socionomics, debt, wages and prices are all issuing the same conclusion: we're in the Disintegrative Winter phase of a multi-decade socio-economic cycle.
Here's our discussion of Cycles: Anti-Globalization and the Debt Super Cycle (30 minutes):
Gordon's abstract of the program: Cycles and the End of the Debt Super-Cycle

For what it's worth, my copy editor reckons Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition) is my best book. It is, if nothing else, highly relevant to today's economic/social schisms.


Join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.
Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print). For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.
Thank you, Carol D. ($5/month), for your superbly generous pledge to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.
Thank you, Ron F. ($10/month), for your outrageously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


Our Privacy Policy:
Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. The third-party advertising placed by Adsense, Investing Channel and/or other ad networks may collect information for ad targeting. Links for commercial sites are paid advertisements. Blog links on the site are posted at my discretion.


Our Commission Policy:
Though I earn a small commission on Amazon.com books and gift certificates purchased via links on my site, I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP