Sunday, June 03, 2018

Does Anyone Else See a Giant Bear Flag in the S&P 500?

We all know the game is rigged, but strange things occasionally upset the "easy money bet."
"Reality" is in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to technical analysis and economic tea leaves. It seems most stock market soothsayers are seeing a breakout of the downtrend that erupted in early February, and so the path to new all-time highs is clear.
Does anyone else see a giant bear flag pattern in the daily chart of the S&P 500? Maybe I'm the only one who sees a bearish signal instead of a bullish breakout.
What I see post-mini-crash is a bearish rising wedge which broke to the downside as rising wedges are wont to do.
What followed the rising wedge? A bear flag. As the name implies, Bear Flags are, well, bearish; they tend to break lower in a continuation of trend. The consensus of soothsayers seems to be that the trend is still bullish. I guess I'm the only one who sees lower highs since late January, something that doesn't strike me as evidence of a bullish trend, the definition of which is higher highs.
Having treaded water for the better part of the month, the Bollinger bands are now tightening, a condition that typically presages a major move up or down.
If the consensus is correct and the technical snapshot is 100% bullish (breakout, up-trend, etc.) then the next big move will be to the upside. Plummeting volatility (VIX) suggests the majority of punters are in the 100% bullish-signals camp.
If the tin-foil hat outlier (me) who sees a big fat bear flag is correct, the next big move will "surprise to the downside."
Meanwhile, a smaller camp of soothsayers expects a trendless chopfest, i.e. a continuation of May's up and down action within a tight trading range.
The roulette wheel is still spinning, so place your bets. We all know the game is rigged, but strange things occasionally upset the "easy money bet."


My new book Money and Work Unchained is $9.95 for the Kindle ebook and $20 for the print edition.
Read the first section for free in PDF format.


If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.

Thank you, Blaise S. ($20), for your extremely generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.
 
Thank you, Don B. ($60), for your splendidly generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.

Our Privacy Policy:

Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Adsense and Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative)
If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.

Our Commission Policy:

Though I earn a small commission on Amazon.com books and gift certificates purchased via links on my site, I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP