Sailing the Stormy Seas of AI

Forecasts of AI's future impacts must be viewed with skepticism, as AI and its promoters are adept at saying what we want to hear rather than telling us the discomfiting truth, as the truth might prompt us to turn AI off.

Small business owner and San Francisco correspondent 'Sparx Eightthreetwo' (found on facebook under the same name) has a metaphor of the sea and boats that illuminates some of the key dynamics in the AI era. Here is Sparx's description of the metaphor:

"Overall, I would suggest that every business is akin to a sailing vessel (microeconomics) in an ocean of financial liquidity (macroeconomics). Some businesses are as small as rowboats, whereas others are as large as aircraft carriers.

Regardless of the size involved, knowledge of how water works is fairly important for long term survival.

On the microeconomic front, it's quite important that every business owner builds the best possible boat that he or she can relative to other boats (competitors).

However, on the macroeconomic front it's also important to understand how the ocean works (and/or whatever specific type of body of water that the client is sailing in).

In general, you want to sail with the currents, not against them.

And if the client is indeed sailing in the ocean, it's imperative to understand when hurricanes and other types of significant turbulence are on the horizon, and to react accordingly long in advance.

If done properly, the client's boat has a significantly increased chance of not sinking, while many other boats likely won't be so lucky.

In the end, I'll simply ask questions. If the client wants to talk about their boat, then I'll talk about their boat.

If the client wants to talk about water, then I'll talk about water."

My application of this metaphor starts with this question: is AI changing the currents and tidal forces of the seas, as its proponents believe, or is it an uncontrollably destructive force akin to hurricanes and tsunamis, or is it neither? To its proponents, AI will change everything, i.e. the nature of the economic, social and political seas, forever, in an inevitably positive way.

Alternatively, as I suggested in these recent posts, the negative uses and consequences of AI--i.e. Anti-Progress--are expanding far faster than any positive effects, effectively overwhelming the one-meter wave of "progress" with a 10-meter tsunami of Anti-Progress sweeping away all before it.

Risk and AI: It's Tricky

What AI Is and Is Not-- or, When Electrocution of Innocents Becomes Profitable

AI Data Centers Are Not the Railroads of Today

AI's Insurmountable Flaw: "Mass Regurgitation of Misinformation"

Is AI Reversing Anti-Progress or Is It Accelerating It?

What If the Work We're Busy Automating Is Needless?

The core of realistic skepticism is this: beneath the sci-fi fantasies, the only real purpose of AI is to increases profits, period. Everything else is PR. An immense chorus of euphoric voices are ecstatically proclaiming that AI will soon be churning out miracle drugs like popcorn, but nobody is saying a single one of the patents of these highly anticipated miracle drugs will be offered to the public for free so the drugs will be low-cost and affordable to the world. No, the real euphoria is generated by the dreams of billions of dollars in new profits generated by quickly developed AI miracle drugs.

In other words, AI isn't going to fix what's broken, it's simply the latest technological tool being deployed to maximize profits. Put another way, it's just a continuation of the dominant zeitgeist of civilizational psychosis: We Don't Need the World, We Only Need Money.

Developing new AI tools or platforms won't fix what's broken, because what's broken isn't fixable with technology.



What's broken is the moral foundation of a sustainable socio-economic order and our ability to relinquish the civilizational psychosis of growth at any cost / waste is growth / Landfill Economy based on optimizing profits by any means available--privatizing gains and socializing costs--for a way of life that balances the shared interests of society with financial-market forces: The US Economy In a Nutshell: Privatize the Gains, Socialize the Costs.

Here's one of the planet's endlessly expanding gigantic landfills of "growth" in Bali:



So in terms of AI transforming the seas into some sustainable balance of the shared interests of society and financial-market forces: no. That's PR fantasy, not reality. The reality is: privatize the gains generated by AI and dump the costs and consequences of AI on the public and the planet's biosphere.

In other words, AI won't change the seas, it will just accelerate what we're already doing, i.e. expanding immiseration and ruination as the socialized costs of optimizing the expansion of profits.

Which brings us to the boats. As the AI trawlers disgorge their profits on insiders and shareholders, it's possible that those navigating stormy seas in rowboats might find ways to use AI productively in their own lives and enterprises. But in a rowboat, there are few ways to offload costs onto others or the biosphere; costs and gains both remain in the confines of the boat.

Without the distortions wrought by large-scale AI privatizing gains but socializing costs and consequences, then the true gains, costs and consequences emerge. Only then will we be able to discern the value--and Anti-Progress--of AI, boat by boat.



Forecasts of AI's future impacts must be viewed with skepticism, as AI and its promoters are adept at saying what we want to hear rather than telling us the discomfiting truth, as the truth might prompt us to turn AI off.




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