Refusing to recognize, much less actually fix, what's broken hurries our collective rendezvous with consequences.
We've come to an interesting juncture in history, interesting because while we're being assured that AI will solve all problems, including any it creates, back in the real world, AI is incapable of fixing what's broken because too many people are getting rich off the status quo, and since the status quo is the problem, those who own / control AI will use it to maintain the status quo, guaranteeing that what's broken spirals into irreversible breakdown.
Richard Bonugli and I discuss what's fatally broken in a new podcast on what it will take to become Bullish (32 min).
Let's start with what's "obvious": letting what's broken fester until it implodes the status quo is not bullish, and neither is substituting delusion and denial for a realistic appraisal of what's actually broken--the essential observe and orient steps in the OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act).
I've often described the two dynamics that are broken that AI can't fix because those who own / control AI are using it to increase the asymmetrical distribution of wealth and income that are the source of breakdown. Consider healthcare. Everyone except the managers / owners / shareholders of healthcare / pharma cartels agrees healthcare is fundamentally broken and is bankrupting households, employers and the government / nation.
Those profiteering off the status quo healthcare system claim AI is going to reduce costs. They fail to mention this won't reduce the price, it will only serve to increase their profits. Cut costs by replacing human labor with AI tools, yea, we reap even higher profits. Nobody is claiming healthcare will magically become affordable because a truly affordable healthcare system wouldn't be as profitable because it wouldn't be as open to exploitation, fraud, profiteering, extraction and parasitic pricing.
In the same way, AI can't solve the other fatal dynamic--widening wealth and income asymmetry--because it's widening the asymmetry to new extremes. The owners of AI are reaping vast fortunes while stripmining resources to run their AI data centers and laying off wage earners. Rather than fixing what's broken in America, AI is accelerating the endgame of what's broken.
Let's run through why increasing numbers of online comments suggest burning the whole rotten healthcare system down and starting over. Healthcare insurance--which often turn out to be a profitable facsimile of actual insurance--has more than doubled beyond the official rate of inflation. If healthcare insurance had tracked inflation, it would cost $10,000 a year for family coverage in 2026. Instead, it costs $25,000+ annually.
Diagnosis: broken.
Regardless of how you toy with statistics, the reality is administrative costs / bloat / profiteering have soared. Diagnosis: broken.
Meanwhile, back in reality, rapidly aging populations are far from their peak demand for healthcare services. Check out the white line on this chart (courtesy of @econimica) of those aged 65+. While births collapse and the workforce is pressured by AI and the soaring cost of living, millions of elderly retirees are being added to the Medicare beneficiary pool. Diagnosis: broken.
Here is the chart of Medicare costs: parabolic. It's nice we can borrow a few trillion every year, but can we borrow $5 trillion or more every year with no consequence? Diagnosis: broken.
Here is the chart of Medicaid costs: parabolic. Diagnosis: broken.
As for the health of the general populace: it's been declining for two generations as our diet has shifted from real food made at home to ultra-processed goo and fitness has bifurcated into a thin layer of extreme fitness and a majority of the populace burdened with the complex ill health of poor diets, poor fitness and metabolic disorders.
Weight of the populace in 1985:
Weight of the populace in 2023:
Yes, now we have GLP-1 drugs that reduce weight and the diseases related to weight, but these drugs have side effects in many patients and they must be taken for life. Once the patient stops taking them, the weight returns.
Drugs that must be taken for life are not a substitute for being healthy. Healthy = not needing any medications.
Diagnosis of the healthcare system: broken. Prognosis: bifurcation: the rich will get "the finest care in the world," and everyone else will be in a queue or denied care--basically the same result--or offered extraordinarily profitable meds and a spectrum of side effects.
What's broken is the entire financial-economic system that distributes the pain and the gain: the pain of sharply higher costs of living and increasing financial precarity is distributed to the bottom 80% while the gains are distributed to the top 10%, with a dribble going to the cohort between 81% and 90% who own enough capital to support their claim to being "middle class."
Note to America's elites: when only the top 15% just below the top 5% qualifies as "middle class," that's not a middle class. I know, you don't concern yourselves with such trivia: there are trillions of dollars to be reaped "solving problems" with AI.
The "problem" you can't solve with AI is AI only "solves" the "problem" you see, which is how to increase your wealth and income before the bottom 80% awaken from the 24/7-hyped delusion that credit-asset bubbles (AI!) raise all boats and will continue to do so forever and ever.
Real life has diverged from that delusion, and the radioactive power of AI to extend that delusion has a short half-life. Refusing to recognize, much less actually fix, what's broken hurries our collective rendezvous with consequences.
What would be bullish is actually fixing what's broken. Promoting self-serving illusory "solutions" that only widen the asymmetries stretching the socio-economic fabric to the breaking point is not bullish.
New podcast: what it will take to become Bullish (32 min).
My book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition).
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