Employment: Trending Down

The growth rate of employment is declining over time, as positive growth weakens and recessionary declines deepen.

Charts and data provided by longtime correspondent B.C. reflect what many know from first-hand experience: employment is trending down. The growth rate of employment is declining over time, as positive growth weakens and recessionary declines deepen.

Though the 3-year average annual change has improved to near-zero, the 5-year (i.e. longer-term trendline) is still solidly negative.





We can see the trend in this table:

Average annual change of employment age 25-54

                        Women             Men
1990-2000           1.76%             1.34%
1990-2007           1.12%             0.99%
2000-                 -0.31%             -0.32%
2007-                 -0.84%             -1.27%

There are two other trends in employment:

1. Decline of full-time jobs and the rise of part-time jobs 

2. Stagnation of high-wage employment and increases in lower-wage job sectors.

State Unemployment and the Growth of Restaurant Employment (CEPR.net)
The sharp rise in retail employment and restaurant work in the latest jobs report continues the pattern where low-paying sectors show the most rapid growth. Also, wage growth has been less rapid in the restaurant sector than elsewhere (0.6 percent over the last year in restaurants compared with 1.9 percent overall).

Industry Employment Trends August 2013 (select either monthly, quarterly or annual changes)

Largest number of job postings: Healthcare, 547,373, a 17% decline

Biggest percentage increase in job postings: Hospitality, 174,757, +34%

Annual declines in job postings:

Education: -5%
Healthcare: -17%
Human Resources: -10%
IT-Information technology: -10%
Manufacturing: -5%

Annual increases in job postings:

Accounting: +6%
Construction: +4%
Financial services: +3%
Hospitality: +34%
Retail: +12%
Transportation: +20%

The job postings confirm the other data that reflect a job market in which demand is concentrated in lower-wage sectors (hospitality and retail) while demand in higher-wage sectors is tepid.

For all the reasons addressed here and many other sites over the years--offshoring, global competition, labor-replacing technologies, the perverse incentives of financialization, structural changes in the economy, etc.--there is no one simple way to boost full-time, higher-wage employment.

If wages cannot easily be increased, the alternative approach is to dramatically lower the cost of living. For more on this, please see The Pareto Economy (February 18, 2013).


Note: blog entries and email will be sporadic for the next few weeks. Your patience and understanding are greatly appreciated.


My new book The Nearly Free University and The Emerging Economy (Kindle eBook) is available at a 20% discount ($7.95, list $9.95) this week. Read the Foreword, first section and the Table of Contents. 

---

The Nearly Free University and The Emerging Economy:
The Revolution in Higher Education

Reconnecting higher education, livelihoods and the economy

With the soaring cost of higher education, has the value a college degree been turned upside down? College tuition and fees are up 1000% since 1980. Half of all recent college graduates are jobless or underemployed, revealing a deep disconnect between higher education and the job market.
It is no surprise everyone is asking: Where is the return on investment? Is the assumption that higher education returns greater prosperity no longer true? And if this is the case, how does this impact you, your children and grandchildren?


We must thoroughly understand the twin revolutions now fundamentally changing our world: The true cost of higher education and an economy that seems to re-shape itself minute to minute.

The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy clearly describes the underlying dynamics at work - and, more importantly, lays out a new low-cost model for higher education: how digital technology is enabling a revolution in higher education that dramatically lowers costs while expanding the opportunities for students of all ages.

The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy provides clarity and optimism in a period of the greatest change our educational systems and society have seen, and offers everyone the tools needed to prosper in the Emerging Economy.

Read the Foreword, first section and the Table of Contents.

print edition (list $20, now $18)
Kindle edition: list $9.95, for one week only, $7.95 (20% discount) 

---

Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:

1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism
3. Diminishing returns
4. Centralization
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy

Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).

We are not powerless. Once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.

Kindle: $9.95       print: $24

Thank you, John T. ($10/month), for your marvelously generous re-subscription to this site-- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.