Tuesday, January 30, 2024

The Era of Easy Money Ruined Us

The rot caused by easy money will only become fully visible when the hollowed out institutions start collapsing under the weight of incompetence, debt and hubris.

We have yet to reach a full reckoning of the consequences of the era of easy money, but it's abundantly clear that it ruined us. The damage was incremental at first, but the perverse incentives and distortions of easy money--zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), credit available without limits to those who are more equal than others--accelerated the institutionalization of these toxic dynamics throughout the economy and society.

Fifteen long years later, the damage cannot be undone because the entire status quo is now dependent on the easy-money bubble for its survival. Should the bubbles inflated by easy money pop, the financial system and the economy will collapse into a putrid heap, undone by the perversions and distortions of endless easy money.

Easy money created destructive, mutually reinforcing distortions on multiple fronts. Let's examine the primary ways easy money led to ruin.

1. The near-zero rate credit was distributed asymmetrically; only the wealthiest few had access to the open spigot of "free money." The rest of us saw mortgage rates decline, but we were still paying much higher rates of interest than corporations, banks and financiers.

If we'd all been given the opportunity to borrow a couple million dollars at 1% and put the easy money into bonds yielding 2.5%, skimming a low-risk 1.5% for producing nothing, we'd have jumped on it. But that opportunity was only available to banks, the super-wealthy, corporations and financiers.

The charts below show the perverse consequences of offering the wealthiest few limitless money at near-zero rates while the rest of us paid much higher interest. The wealthiest few could buy income-producing assets on the cheap at carrying costs no ordinary investor could match. Since there was so much "free money" sloshing around for financial elites to tap, the demand for income-producing assets soared, pushing prices into the stratosphere. These enormous increases in valuation generated stupendous capital gains for the wealthiest few.

Look at 2009 as the starting point in these charts, as that's when the Federal Reserve instituted ZIRP and opened the spigots of easy money to "those with first access," i.e. banks, corporations and financiers.

Here we see how the assets of the top 0.1% more than tripled since 2009, far outpacing inflation.



The net worth of the top 1% went ballistic as well. Nearly free credit is rocket fuel if you're first in line and nobody else gets the same interest rate.



The bottom 50% of American households lost ground in the era of easy money. This is not coincidence, it's direct causation: give the lowest interest rates and unlimited credit to the wealthy, and they will buy up the most productive assets, leaving crumbs for the rest of the American citizenry.



Here's the Fed balance sheet, the money they created out of thin air and injected into the cheap-unlimited-credit-for-the-wealthy machine.



Note how the easy money sparked federal borrowing. Federal debt was under the line of GDP expansion until 2009, at which point it took off in a parabolic ascent. Now that interest rates have finally normalized a bit, the gargantuan interest on this debt will be extracted from the citizenry via higher taxes and/or reduced federal spending. (Giveaways to wealthy political donors will of course remain untouched, along with tax havens for the super-wealthy.)



The social perversions of easy money are equally destructive. When it's cheap and easy to borrow more money, that becomes the "obvious" way to deal with challenges. This incentivizes enterprises and institutions to advance those with skills in finance and PR rather than in management.

With the discipline imposed by the cost of money gone and the expansion of opportunities to reap fortunes by pyramiding credit and leverage, competency was redefined from management focused on increasing productivity and cutting costs through efficiencies to extracting the soaring value of existing assets: nothing new was produced but yowza, a lot of people sure got rich.

The rot created by easy money has seeped into every fiber of our social, political and economic orders. Correspondent D.T. drew a direct line between easy money and the decline of competence in The Powers That Be:

"Nepo(tism) babies selected by accident of birth without any tempering in flames... cocooned in their own reality, disdainful of the unselected, coddled and hothoused, ignorant of history and, worst of all, supremely confident in the superiority of their own righteous abilities... because when you get first dibs on the free money there are no consequences you can't buy your way out of."

Is there any doubt that what some are calling The Disconnected Elite (DE) have fortified their Ivy League-luxe-enclave bubbles and unearned privileges with the easy money that comes with their position atop the heap? The cost of this elevation of incompetence, the complete disconnection from the realities of everyday Americans and the hubristic confidence in their own talent--i.e., believing your own PR--has hollowed out the nation's institutions in ways those outside the institution cannot yet observe.

The rot caused by easy money will only become fully visible when the hollowed out institutions start collapsing under the weight of incompetence, debt and hubris.

New podcast: Self Reliance (45 min).




My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

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When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

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Sunday, January 28, 2024

Our Tax System Is an Unfair Mess: Here's How to Fix It

Make the U.S. attractive to labor and capital with low rates and a simple, fair tax system and the populace and economy will benefit.

Tax reform is admittedly a field of dreams: the entrenched elites who pull the levers of the status quo will use their power to game or modify any reform that limits their greed, and so any real tax reform is reduced to pie-in-the-sky fantasies.

Nonetheless, discussing an alternative system of taxation that is fairer and simpler helps establish two important things: one, it reveals how far we've drifted from fairness, and two, it provides a template for a future reformist government to follow.

The reason why fairness in taxation matters is institutionalized unfairness rots society from the inside, and the social order and economy eventually collapse. Unfair taxes have two negative consequences: they accelerate the decay generated by unfairness, and they concentrate wealth in the top levels of wealth and power, exacerbating wealth/income inequality which also hollows out the nation from within.

Reforming taxation can't fix all our problems, but it can reduce the negative consequences of institutionalized unfairness and soaring wealth/power inequality. Making taxation fairer and simpler won't eliminate the dysfunctional dynamics of our way of life or reverse wealth inequality or fix our perverse dependence on asset bubbles and central bank stimulus, but it's a step in the right direction.

So with those caveats firmly in mind, let's get started.

What is the purpose of taxation? To raise money to fund the government/state, of course, which also includes whatever funding the state apportions to serve the common good / public interests. In the U.S., roughly half of federal revenues go to programs that distribute money directly to individual citizens or pay for their medical care: Social Security and Medicare / Medicaid consume about $3 trillion of the $6.3 trillion federal budget. Policy Basics: Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?

$800 billion is spent on defense. Veterans benefits and healthcare total almost $500 billion and another $500 billion is devoted to economic security programs: SNAP, subsidized childcare and housing, etc. Interest on the national debt (which is skyrocketing) is currently around $700 billion.

These programs, supported by the majority of citizens, consume the vast majority of federal revenues.

Taxation has social purposes as well. The issue here is known as the free-rider problem: when somebody shirks the work, duties and responsibilities carried by everyone in the group, they are free-riding on the work, effort and sacrifices of others. If free-riding becomes institutionalized, the unfairness erodes and eventually destroys social coherence and stability.

In small pre-industrial tribes, members eliminated free-riders by banishing them to live on their own wits in the wilderness. It's much harder to survive on one's own than in a group, so this punishment provided a strong incentive to contribute something to the group's common good.

In our status quo, free-riders at the bottom and the top both generate the resentment of unfairness. Able-bodied welfare recipients (free-riders at the bottom of the economic hierarchy) and billionaires who pay less tax than average workers (free-riders at the top of the economic hierarchy) are a problem that the taxation system must address.

So Rule #1 of our alternative tax system is: everyone contributes something to the common good.

The second source of unfairness in taxation is the ability of those at the top to rig the system to their benefit via lavish donations to craven politicians who then modify the tax code to reward their donors. These self-serving modifications are hidden inside complexity: congressional bills running into the hundreds of pages and tax regulations running into the thousands of pages.

So Rule #2 of our alternative tax system is: KISS--keep it simple, stupid. This means that it must be against the law to add any complexity to the simple tax code: no riders, deductions, exemptions, etc. can be added to the code. (Yes, this is impossible in our hopelessly corrupt status quo, but recall that one purpose of the exercise to reveal the near-infinite depths of our corrupt status quo's unfairness.)

The powerless have very minimal ways to game the system. The powerful have numerous ways to game the system. The powerless can barter or use cash to evade income taxes, and the wealthy can borrow money against their assets to live on and evade income taxes in that manner.

So the alternative tax system has to have multiple sieves to catch all the free-riders. If there is only one tax, free-riders will figure out a way around it, much like a bacteria evades a single antibiotic. So the tax system has to be the equivalent of a triple-layered "cocktail" to catch the free-riders.

So Rule #3 of our alternative tax system is: there must be three layers of taxation.

Incentives matter, so trying to "tax the rich" via confiscatory high rates won't work. Capital is fluid in today's global economy, and the well-oiled global tax avoidance industry has established secure tax havens. The practical approach is to make taxes low enough that they are viewed as the cost of doing business in the U.S. If the benefits of doing business, owning assets and residing in the U.S. outweigh the taxes that must be paid, capital will view the U.S. favorably.

This approach will collect more taxes than confiscatory high rates.

So Rule #4 of our alternative tax system is: make taxes the cost of doing business.

Other nations collect taxes, too, and the global wealthy end up paying taxes somewhere. So the goal of our alternative tax system is to not just be competitive in tax rates but offer a better deal to both labor (earned income) and capital (unearned income).

So Rule #5 of our alternative tax system is: the tax system must offer global advantages to both labor and capital.

So here's the alternative tax system I propose:

1. Get rid of all corporate income taxation. The corporate tax system is probably the most unfair of them all, as some domestic companies pay a lot and global giants pay very little or none at all. Get rid of all corporate income taxes, but require each enterprise to file three statements which the companies already prepare as part of generally accepted accounting standards: a profit and loss (P&L) statement (income and expenses), a balance sheet (assets and liabilities) and a list of the shareholders who received dividends and the amounts paid to each. These statements must include both their global and domestic (U.S.-based) business.

An essential element of the common good is to know who is doing business in the nation, so every LLC, pass-through entity or shell entity must file these financial documents plus a sworn affidavit with scans of passports attached listing the individual human beings who own/control the LLC, pass-through entity or shell entity. Failing to submit the identity of the owners/managers or falsifying ownership / control will expose the free-riders to federal prosecution, a five-year prison sentence and fine up to $10 million.

The U.S. should not be a tax haven for free-riders.

2. Eliminate all income taxes on labor and unearned income (interest, dividends, capital gains) up to double the average/median full-time annual salary/earnings. The average/median full-time annual salary/earnings in the U.S. is about $60,000, so the first $125,000 of individual income is tax-free ($250,000 for a two-earner household).

For those whose only income is from wages, this means about 95% of all workers will pay no income tax. (Employees and employers will still pay 7.65% each in Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, per Rule #1: everybody contributes to the common good, and these programs make up roughly half of all federal spending.)

For example, an individual who earns $70,000 in wages and makes $50,000 in capital gains would pay no income tax.

3. All income above $125,000 per person / $250,000 per household would be taxed at a flat rate of 25%. This eliminates any difference between tax rates on labor, short-term and long-term capital gains: all income, regardless of source, is taxed at a flat 25%.

Consider a household that earned $250,000 in salaries, commissions and bonuses and $100,000 in capital gains, interest and dividends. They would pay zero income tax on the first $250,000 in income, and $25,000 on the additional $100,000. Their total income tax on their $350,000 income would be $25,000.

4. The tax rate on all income rises to 33% above ten-times the average annual salary. So all income above $600,000 per individual / $1.2 million per household would be taxed at 33%. Only a small percentage of households earn more than $1.2 million. A household income around $650,000 defines the top 1%, so this tax rate would only apply to the top 0.5% of households. The bottom 99.5% would pay no more than 25% of income above $250,000 per household.

Consider the advantages for both employers and employees of this tax system. Employers don't have to deduct income taxes on wages below $125,000 annually and employees pay no income taxes on 2X the average annual earned income.

OK, that's the income tax level. There are two more: sales tax (a.k.a. VAT) and wealth tax. The majority of other nations have VAT taxes, national sales taxes on consumption. This level is important because even those who evade income taxes will pay sales / consumption taxes paid at the point of purchase.

5. The argument against a national sales tax is that it's regressive, hurting the poor more than the rich. To counter this, the alternative tax system has two consumption tax rates: 5% for everything a low-income person needs to live--rent, real unprocessed food (i.e. food with only one ingredient), utilities, rock-bottom mobile phone service and public transit fares--and 10% on everything else.

6. Additionally, there is a 5% transaction tax on all asset purchases and sales: every purchase or sale of any asset or financial instrument would pay this transaction tax: stocks, bonds, options, futures contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, mutual funds, real estate, corporate mergers, issuance of stock options, and any other financial transaction or exchange.

These taxes on consumption and transactions will raise the bulk of tax revenues, and do so progressively, as low-income people consume less and rarely trade financial assets. But just as importantly, everyone who purchases anything has to contribute to the common good via the national sales tax. The tax is not high enough to make it worth evading, especially if the penalties for evading it are prohibitively stiff.

For the vast majority of households, this 10% national sales tax/VAT would be the only federal tax they pay, other than the occasional 5% transaction tax should they trade securities or buy/sell a house.

This brings us to the tax level that triggers cardiac arrest in many people: the wealth tax. Please take a dose of nitro or anti-anxiety med and hear me out on this.

The wealth tax is the last sieve to catch free-riders at the top of the wealth-power pyramid. 99.9% of the citizenry would never pay a dime of my proposed wealth tax. It's designed to catch free-riders who own the majority of the nation's financial assets. In this way, it's similar to the notoriously complicated Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) in the current tax code, but much simpler.

7. The proposed wealth tax is unlike conventional wealth taxes, as it only applies if the individual / household paid very little income tax. Here's how it works.

Every individual / household, citizen or resident, is required to submit a statement of total income and assets and liabilities. Income is simple: earned income (wages, commissions, bonuses), net profit from a sole proprietorship or partnership, rental income, interest, dividends and capital gains.

This simple income statement is the basis for calculating any income tax as detailed above.

Every individual / household is also required to submit a statement of assets and liabilities listing both U.S. assets and global assets. This balance sheet statement will be straightforward for the bottom 99%: primary residence, second home, rental property, stocks, bonds, 401K and IRA retirement accounts, etc. Non-U.S. (global) assets must also be included.

Those households with a total net worth of $5 million or more will be taxed at .0025% annually--one-quarter of one percent. On $5 million in net worth, that is $12,500, not exactly a giant sum. Only a very thin slice of American households have a net worth of $5 million or more: $2.5 million and up defines the top 2% of all households.

This rate edges up with net worth to reach 1% at $30 million--the generally agreed-upon definition of a High Net Worth household. 1% of $30 million is $300,000.

Here's where my proposal stands apart: all income taxes paid anywhere in the world are deducted from the wealth tax. So if the household worth $5 million paid at least $12,500 in income taxes anywhere in the world, they pay no wealth tax. If the household worth $30 million paid at least $300,000 in income taxes anywhere in the world, they pay no U.S. wealth tax.

(Reality check: the required bribes alone in many overseas locales may well exceed the wealth tax proposed here.)

The secret sauce of this wealth tax is it's only a sieve for those who paid little or no income taxes in any nation. This also eliminates the gaming of nationality: since taxes paid in other countries are deducted along with income taxes paid in the U.S., there's less incentive to slosh capital around the globe.

Given the tax rates in enclaves the wealthy prefer (for example, Switzerland), it's likely that households with major income-producing assets scattered around the world already pay income taxes somewhere, and are therefore unlikely to pay any wealth tax in the U.S. This sieve only catches those who've evaded income taxes everywhere but want to do business or own assets or have a residence in the U.S.

Once again, the goal here is to make the tax rate low enough it's considered a cost of doing business. Is it really worth giving up doing business in the U.S., the world's largest and most liquid capital market, to avoid a tax that's a modest fraction of one's net worth and income? For those who say yes, then so be it, they can go leech off some other nation's citizenry.

The key point to understand is the goal is to ensure that free-riding is eliminated and everyone pays something approximating a fair share based on their income and wealth. Recall that the vast majority of financial assets are owned by the top few percent of households, and so fairness demands these super-wealthy households pay more than average and upper-middle-class households.

The other key is that all the tax-related statements are already prepared by every enterprise and should be part of every household's financial affairs: a basic income-expense statement and a basic statement of assets and liabilities. The actual tax preparation calulations are trivial. In effect, the actual tax return of everyone, rich or poor, will fit on one page: there is no complex tax return because the calculations are based on simple numbers: income and net worth.

I can hear a chorus of voices saying this alternative tax system doesn't tax the wealthy enough. My response: look, the super-wealthy will pay consumption and transaction taxes, and either income taxes and/or a wealth tax. If we leave our tax system as unfair and complex as it is now, we're increasing their incentives and loopholes to evade paying any tax at all.

The solution is to set low tax rates and reduce the incentives and opportunities to game the system to evade contributing to the common good. It's far more productive to make taxes in the U.S. low enough to be viewed as a cost of doing business rather than an incentive for talent and capital to flee to other less complex, fairer economies.

Make the U.S. attractive to labor and capital with low rates and a simple, fair tax system and the populace and economy will benefit.



New podcast: Self Reliance (45 min).




My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


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Thursday, January 25, 2024

Isn't It Time We Have Social Security for Families with Children?

Fortunately, there's an obvious answer staring us in the face: Tax the Casino.

There is a generational war underway in the U.S., and to date the young generations have lost and the senior generations have won. In numerous posts over the past 15 years, I have endeavored to compare apples-to-apples to show that the generations that came of age in the 1960s through the 1990s could afford to own a house and raise a family with moderate incomes. This is no longer the case.

Apologists for the status quo disagree, of course, but they are unable to contest an accurate apples-to-apples comparison of the purchasing power of an hour of labor then and now. We can say an hour of wages bought more goods and services then than it does today, or we can say "everything was cheaper then." Regardless of the dynamics behind the devaluation of an hour's labor and the stratospheric rise in the cost of healthcare, housing, childcare, college tuition, etc., the reality is well-illustrated by one example: a young couple who bought a modest house in 1996 in the East Bay of the pricey San Francisco Bay Area. (These are friends of mine, so this is a factual account, not a theoretical example.)

Each worked part-time for the city library, at rates of pay and with benefits that were sufficient to get by but were nowhere close to median full-time wages: remember, these are part-time workers working around 30 hours a week.

With a modest down payment and income they qualified to buy a small, old house (built in 1916) on a small lot in an East Bay suburb--the classic starter home--in 1996 for $135,000. (The lot is too small to allow a garage next to the house or a driveway to a rear garage. It's small.)

Both were handy and slowly upgraded / remodeled the house with new heating, built new kitchen cabinetry, added insulation, new paint, updated bathroom, etc., over the course of a few years, at a cost in cash outlays of around $15,000, putting their total investment at $150,000, plus their labor of around $20,000. (Remember, these are 1997 dollars, so their $35,000 investment of materials and labor then would now cost $67,500 according to the BLS Inflation Calculator, which understates the soaring costs of building materials and labor.)

Note that they did not add a single square foot of additional space.

So let's say their total investment was around $170,000. By the modest standards of housing appreciation in the 1990s, they would have been doing very well to sell the house for $200,000 a few years down the road.

But then Housing Bubble #1 inflated (thank you, FHA, corrupt rating agencies, loose-money Federal Reserve and asleep-at-the-wheel regulators), and so they sold the small house for $542,000 in 2004.

Needless to say, their hourly wage did not triple in those eight years, nor could they have scraped up the 20% down payment on a $542,000 house ($108,000) with their moderate incomes. What was within reach in 1996 was completely, totally out of reach a few years later.

Fast-forward 20 years and the house is valued at $1.3 million, down from $1.4 million (such a deal!). A 20% down payment is $260,000 and the buyer will need somewhere in the neighborhood of $250,000 to $300,000 annual income to qualify for the $1 million mortgage.

In other words, not two part-time librarians. This is the generational divide in a nutshell, and to complete the picture, add in the skyrocketing cost of healthcare, childcare, etc. in the 27 years since they bought the modest home for an affordable price.

Calculated in the number of hours of work needed to buy the house in 1996 and today, the difference says all we need to know about the generational divide: according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the median annual salary in the US is $56,420 and the average annual salary is $60,575. Let's call it $30 per hour. Since California is a high-wage state, let's call it $34 per hour. In California in 1996, the average annual pay was $31,773, or roughly $16 per hour.

In 1996, it took 8,437 hours (without deductions for simplicity's sake) to buy a $135,000 house.

In 2023, it takes 38,235 hours to buy the same house for $1.3 million.

It takes 4.5 times more hours of labor to buy the same house today. Fellow citizens, I could go through the same apples-to-apples comparison of the hours of labor required to pay for healthcare insurance, 24 hours in a hospital, a month of childcare or state university tuition, and the results would be equally crushing.

For example:

University of California at Davis:
2004 in-state tuition $5,684
2018 in-state tuition $14,463

The apologists always have quibbles. But the quality of the goods and services we have now are so much better. Not just wrong--totally wrong: The "Crapification" of the U.S. Economy Is Now Complete (February 9, 2022)

Stainless Steal (February 26, 2023)

But California is an extreme; the median home price in the U.S. is only $400,000. In 1996, the median home price in the U.S. was $140,000. Average annual earnings in 1996: $29,000. Average annual earnings in 2023: $60,000.

So it took 4.8 years of work to buy a house in 1996 and it now takes 6.7 years. That's 40% more hours of work to buy a house. Never mind prices or inflation, both of which can be distorted and misleading: how many hours of labor does it take to buy a median-price house? Do the same calculation for childcare, healthcare and college tuition, and you get the same results:

What was within reach of the majority of average two-income households is no longer within reach. All of the quibbles in the universe don't change the fact that the older generations that bought assets at prevailing prices 25 or more years ago have banked enormous gains in their personal wealth, not through any particular genius or special effort but solely as the result of their entry into the economy pre-bubble.

These enormous gains in personal wealth have helped older generations offset the recent ravages of much higher costs of living (i.e. inflation). Many other benefits have accrued to those who bought assets pre-bubble, for example, in states with limits on property tax increases, the low initial purchase price of their home has locked in property taxes that are a fraction of the property taxes paid by recent buyers.

All of which leads me to this: isn't it time that we have Social Security for families with children, just as we do for seniors? Okay, now that the screaming and weeping and gnashing of teeth have subsided, I hear a plaintive cry: how are we going to pay for such a costly program?

Fortunately, there's an obvious answer staring us in the face: Tax the Casino, by which I mean institute a transaction tax on every transaction of buying, selling or transferring by any means any asset or financial instrument of any nature.

Okay, so the screaming and weeping and gnashing of teeth is even louder now, but after the rational mind once again becomes available for dialog, we can note that a 2% transaction fee on a $1,000 stock purchase is $20. Those who were trading stocks in the 1980s recall that buying $1,000 of stock in a brokerage account cost $54 or more in commission and fees. So the claim that a 2% transaction tax would cripple the nation is not based in historical fact.

In the booming 1980s, commissions on stocks and options were as high as 5%, and that didn't cripple the economy. Transaction fees at 5% suppress daytrading and high-frequency trading (HFT), i.e. totally unproductive skimming of wealth by financial trickery, but they don't impair long-term investing in productive assets.

In summary: a 2% transaction tax would have zero impact on legitimate investing and offer a useful suppression of unproductive skimming operations. Maybe capital would be incentivized to seek real-world long-term investments instead of financier/rentier skims and scams. As for real estate, many locales already have real estate transaction fees, and that fee is simply added to all the other commissions and fees. If the buyer can't afford their share of a 2% transaction tax, they have no business buying the property in the first place.

A modest 2% transaction tax on every asset-financial transaction in the U.S.--every stock, option, futures contract, derivative, cryptocurrency, ETF, mutual fund, rental property, commercial building, corporate merger, issuance of stock options, the sale of fine art and collectible autos--everything--would raise a rather large sum.

I'll discuss this further in a follow-up post, but let's be honest: such a transaction tax would go a long way to raising enough money to provide some cash payments to help non-wealthy families with children.

Those profiteering from the Casino will scream and weep, but the United States does not exist to enrich the few at the expense of the many or the common good. I know this is a shocking revelation, as it now seems that the nation does exist to enable the few to profit at the expense of the many, and it may be time to reclaim the interests of the nation and its citizenry and put them ahead of the private interests of bankers, Corporate insiders, financiers, rapacious cartels and monopolistic billionaires.

Yes, the devil is in the details, but let's stick with the overall context: there's $156 trillion in U.S. assets (plus foreign capital buying U.S. assets) sloshing around the U.S. economy, assets that are constantly being bought and sold, and 2% of all transactions would go a long way to supporting the families with children who aren't wealthy.

Or we accept a needless, divisive, incredibly destructive generational war to protect the infinite greed of those skimming wealth in the Casino. It's our choice, but it doesn't strike me as much of a choice.

More Than Half of US Wealth Belongs to Baby Boomers:

Baby boomers: $78.1 trillion (50%)
Generation X: $46 trillion (29.5%)
Silent Generation: $18.6 trillion (11.9%)
Millennials: $13.3 trillion (8.5%)
Generation Z: Insufficient data

Visualizing $156 Trillion in U.S. Assets, by Generation

The gig economy sucked in millennials like me. Will we ever get out?



New podcast: Self Reliance (45 min).




My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


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Tuesday, January 23, 2024

The Template of National/Imperial Decay and Collapse

The point is the good times of seemingly endless expansion are never permanent yet human regimes become accustomed to managing only expansion.

Correspondent David L. recently posed a topic I have often pondered: "I am curious how the Mayan empire collapsed." While there may a definitive answer out there, I have yet to come across it. From my reading on the subject, it seems likely that there may not be a definitive answer due to the paucity of written records (most of whatever remained in the 1500s were destroyed by the Spanish as infidel texts; only three pre-Columbian books / codices of Maya hieroglyphics and fragments of a fourth are known to have survived) and archeological evidence.

From what I can gather from various sources, the decay and collapse of the Mayan civilization may have followed the classic template outlined in many of the books I've recommended over the years: (see below for a short list). Here is my summary template of the classic cycle of expansion, decay and collapse:

1. Agricultural productivity increases, generally due to expanding lands under cultivation, agreeable weather and advances in technology.

2. This expanding surplus enables a sustained increase in the human population (for example, the population of China nearly doubled between 1766 and 1833 even as the amount of cultivated land remained stable) and a concurrent increase in social and economic complexity overseen by an expanding classes of managerial elites: civil and political administration, priesthood, military and merchants / lenders.

3. Then climate change reduces crop yields, introducing a situation--a sustained period of fewer resources rather than more--that is novel to the managerial elites, who respond by doing whatever worked in the past to get through seasonal causes of crop failures.

4. In this new era of climate change, the poor weather isn't reversed the following season: the drier, cooler conditions persist and worsen, further reducing crop yields. With fewer calories, people become more prone to disease, and this adds additional pressure on ruling elites.

5. Taking resources and productive land from nearby kingdoms / states becomes an increasingly attractive option, and so war breaks out. Unless one of the neighboring states has an overwhelming military advantage and is thus able to quickly subjugate all competing states, the wars drag on, consuming whatever resources are left; impoverishing the populace and the state. (The 1600s in Europe and China offer examples of this dynamic.)

Even victorious states soon run into the same problem of declining crop yields. Conquered lands are producing less, a hungry populace falls prey to illness and social disorder, and the ruling elites raise taxes to continue their military adventures and own resource-rich lifestyles.

6. Stymied, the ruling elites "do more of what's failed" (make more sacrifices to the angered gods, increase taxes even more, etc.) rather than grasp the severity of the crisis and the need to make radical changes in the status quo.

7. The reasons for their reluctance to recognize, much less act on, the need for fundamentally novel responses are many. We can summarize the many influences at work into a few categories:

8. The status quo is a balance of various elites, each of which is fearful of any change which might upset the status quo and their share of the resources, i.e. any necessary adaptations. This self-interest fuels their risk avoidance and reluctance to make sacrifices.

9. The ruling elites' long success in managing the state / empire's expansion has institutionalized overconfidence in the power and stability of the regime, generating a fatal hubris.

10. The complacency nurtured by a history of success and self-serving elites breed incompetence and in-fighting; the competent are weeded out as threats, leaving only the most corrupt, venal and incompetent in charge. No one seriously believes the state / empire is at risk of collapse, freeing the elites to waste precious time and treasure on internecine-elite warfare.

11. The masses are equally wedded to the immense status quo and fear any change as well. Those who opt out and melt into the countryside to escape oppression, taxes, etc., are either apathic and focused on obtaining their next meal or they've concluded the status quo is no longer worthy of the sacrifices being demanded of them.

12. Neither the ruling elites nor the structure of the society and economy are capable of making the necessary radical adaptations to the new conditions, which can be summarized as a "polycrisis" of mutually-reinforcing dynamics. The core structures of the society, political system and the economy decay and collapse.

Climate change is cyclical in nature, and these cycles can be exacerbated by disturbances such as volcanic activity. As covered by several of the books listed below, it is not entirely chance that the tumultuous 1600s in Europe coincided with The Little Ice Age, which happened to occur during the Maunder Minimum, a solar cycle likely made worse by The 1600 AD Huaynaputina Eruption in Peru, one of the largest volcanic eruptions in the past 2,000 years.

The Taiping Rebellion in China (1850 to 1864) may overlap with the Gleissberg drought cycle and other solar cycles that are associated with drier, cooler weather.

The point is the good times of seemingly endless expansion are never permanent yet human regimes become accustomed to managing only expansion. Lacking the institutional structure and motivation to undertake risky, fundamental adaptations that require cooperation, shared sacrifices and the accelerated evolution of trial-and-error, the regimes decay and collapse, overwhelmed by their own sclerosis and hubris and the mutually-reinforcing storms of a polycrisis.



A short list of books on these topics:

The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire

Global Crisis: War, Climate Change, & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century

The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History

The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization

The Collapse of Complex Societies

Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change

War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century

1587, A Year of No Significance: The Ming Dynasty in Decline

My books on these dynamics:

Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform

Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It

Global Crisis, National Renewal

New podcast: Self Reliance (45 min).




My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


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Monday, January 22, 2024

Have Our Elites Lost The Mandate of Heaven?

The top monkeys are doing very well indeed, while the troop is feeling that the Monkey Gods have signaled their displeasure with the failure of the top monkeys.

The consent of the governed and the Mandate of Heaven have an interesting relationship. In the ancient cosmology of ruler and ruled, the right to rule was viewed as a metaphysical construct: the gods (or God) granted individuals or blood lines the Divine Right to Rule, with the understanding that this right was contingent and could be withdrawn.

The Chinese called this metaphysical approval the Mandate of Heaven, and a series of natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, etc.) were interpreted as the withdrawal of the rulers' right to rule due to their failure to properly comport Heaven and Earth.

(Failures of leadership such as losing wars and exacerbating famines didn't help.)

Once the ruled concluded the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn, that was the metaphysical green light to overthrow the existing ruling elite and replace it with another regime.

All nation-states have some version of the consent of the governed, which is based on the idea that rulers are granted authority because they have unique powers that benefit the commoners.

This power might be supernatural, as in a priest-class which claimed that its rituals insured bountiful harvests, or a natural superiority such as being a successful general and compelling leader.

Whatever the source if the elite's power, if the elite failed to deliver the implicitly promised benefits to commoners--bountiful harvests, security from invasion, etc.--then the consent of the governed could be withdrawn, as the elites had failed to hold up their end of the bargain.

In the current era, the ruling elite's claim on superior powers that benefit the ruled boil down to 1) charismatic leadership and 2) difficult-to-acquire expertise that gives the elite an edge in decision-making, planning and innovation and 3) immense wealth, which they claim is proof of their technocratic / financier superiority, as they claim their wealth was earned by merit rather than being skimmed via monopoly, corruption, insider trading, financier trickery, regulatory capture, etc.

In many ways, the current faith in technology as the solution to all problems has a metaphysical component: many people are offended if their belief in the supremacy of technology is questioned.

The current technocratic elite is in a sense the modern equivalent of a priest-class with special powers to conjure technological-managerial marvels that carry the implicit promise of delivering benefits to commoners--bountiful yields, security, etc.

As prosperity and security decline, and technological-managerial marvels (Big Data, AI, etc.) fail to fix what's broken, faith in the priesthood of technological expertise is fading, and the consent of the governed is eroding: the priesthood's incantations and rituals are failing to provide the promised benefits.

There is another factor that causes the ruled to remove the consent of the governed: soaring inequality driven by the elites taking a larger share than the economy/society can sustain.

Put another way: if the ruling elite mismanages affairs while increasing their share of the economy's surplus, the decline falls on the commoners.

If the ruling elite manages to expand the economy by 2% annually but increases their share by 10%, the slice of pie left for the commoners shrinks accordingly.

Once ruling elites make the mistake of believing their own PR (we deserve our authority and power due to our superiority), they lose touch with the day-to-day realities of insecurity experienced by commoners, and this leads to the hubris and magical thinking of "let them eat cake." (Actually, Marie A. said, "let them eat brioche," but we get the idea: if there is no bread, give them something better than bread, as if that better staple is in universal abundance because it's abundant on the tables of the ruling elites.)

This academic study presents the case for inequality bringing down elites and collapsing societies.

Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies.

A book that covers the history of inequality being reset tumultuously The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century.

Given that the top 10% in the U.S. own very nearly 90% of all income-producing assets and collect 97% of all income derived from capital, while the wealth and income of the bottom 90% have stagnated or declined, it's self-evident that inequality has reached the collapse / withdrawal of consent of the governed stage.



It's also increasingly self-evident that the technocracy elite has failed to deliver the implicitly promised benefits across a spectrum of measures of well-being.



The top monkeys are doing very well indeed, while the troop is feeling that the Monkey Gods have signaled their displeasure with the failure of the top monkeys (no Mandate of Heaven for you) and the erosion of security and well-being are evidence the elite has failed to fulfil its part of the bargain.



The only question is how messy the removal of the consent of the governed and the Mandate of Heaven will be.



New podcast: Self Reliance (45 min).


My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


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Thursday, January 18, 2024

National Self-Reliance Is On the Rise: China and the U.S.

Balancing globalized trade and capital flows with domestic self-reliance and control of credit and capital is a positive development for everyone.

This week's focus is on self-reliance, a topic of increasing relevance than is more complex that it may seem.

The flip side of the decline of hyper-globalization is the rise of national self-reliance. We can see this dynamic expanding in real time across the globe, particularly in China and the U.S.: though still bound by trillions of dollars / RMB in investment and trade, the two nations are seeking to balance their dependency on the other by increasing their self-reliance with their own resources and technologies.

This reduction of a potent source of instability (dependency) in favor of national self-reliance is a positive development. Just as household self-reliance doesn't mean self-sufficiency (something I explain in Self-Reliance in the 21st Century), national self-reliance doesn't mean self-sufficiency: trade and diplomatic ties with other nations are beneficial, but it doesn't serve anyone's interests to be so beholden to other nations that blackmail become a temptation.

But withdrawing from the world has risks, too. The ideal is a dynamic balance between national interests and global ties that benefit everyone, that is, ties that nurture cooperation and global stability.

In other words, national self-reliance is not a substitute for global engagement and cooperation, it is a stabilizing force that enables beneficial global ties. Dependencies are sources of instability and risk, as each side is under pressure to preserve whatever is viewed as essential, and this tends to increase the risk of rash decisions and actions.

The ideal global arrangement is a transparent flow of ideas and information that enables every participant to adapt to changing conditions. From this perspective, the risk isn't that China seeks to become less dependent on Western technology, i.e. becoming more self-reliant; the risk is China blocking the flow of ideas from outside sources with the Great Firewall. (My sources report no U.S. news sites are available in China except a handful of anti-establishment sites.)

In the long sweep of its history, China has opened to the world and prospered, and then closed itself off and stagnated. A century after the glories of Admiral Zheng He's massive fleet reaching the shores of Africa in the early 1400s, China banned all oceangoing vessels and suppressed maritime trade sought by other nations.

That outside ideas are viewed as potential threats to the domestic status quo is a common feature of history. Many national elites have tried to block ideas and information while seeking to attract technologies and capital, as these benefit not just the domestic economy but the elites' personal wealth and their power base.

Capital and technology are tricky, however. Capital flowing into a developing nation can be beneficial, but it can also overwhelm and exploit the domestic economy, leading to the neo-colonialization of the nation's productive assets. Capital flowing out of a nation with excess savings can be a positive source of investment opportunities, but this draining of capital can also hollow out the economy, especially if it is accompanied by a parallel loss of human capital leaving for better opportunities elsewhere.

Cheap credit looks attractive to credit-starved nations, but it comes with a terrible cost as the debt levels quickly rise to unsustainable levels and both borrowers and lenders are forced to absorb losses and retrench. China is receiving a 21st century education in these dynamics via the Belt and Road Initiative, which has been dialed back as loans sour and asset transfers ignite fears of neo-colonialism from the East.

Technology that's borrowed ends up stagnating unless the entire system that enabled the development of that technology is also imported. The key feature of that technology-engine isn't money, though that is one ingredient; the most important feature is the free flow of ideas and information, unencumbered by elite / political interference.

Balancing domestic self-reliance and global trade and capital / information flows is not easy. Closing the door to outside ideas, capital and information tends to lead to stagnation, while opening the floodgates with no constraints tends to lead to destabilizing dependencies, credit bubbles, exploitation and neo-colonialism.

National self-reliance has spawned an entire vocabulary. In China, President Xi Jinping has called for a "whole-nation approach" to increase domestic production of technology. In the U.S. the vocabulary includes reshoring, onshoring, friend-shoring and strategic alliances.

Hyper-globalization wreaked havoc on many levels in many places. Balancing globalized trade and capital flows with domestic self-reliance and control of credit and capital is a positive development for everyone. A more balanced global economy offers the potential for continued global cooperation and engagement and domestic development for every nation that pursues the dynamic stability of both self-reliance and global engagement.

Gordon Long and I discuss trade and supply chains in depth in our podcast on Self Reliance (45 min).



I began my study of China over 50 years ago when I earned a degree in Philosophy at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, where I was a student of two widely admired professors of Chinese philosophy, Chang Chung-yuan and Cheng Chung-Ying. It seems to me that Chinese philosophy--Confucianism, neo-Confucianism, Legalism (Mencius et al), Chan Buddhism, Taoism and in the 20th century, China's version of Marxism--remain foundations beneath the great flux of China's often tumultuous history. In this sense, Chinese philosophy is perhaps the ideal path to understanding the history and culture of China.

I haven't maintained a list of the many books I've read on China; I've listed a few below that I recall. Please note that I am not an expert or a scholar, I am merely an informed observer.


1587, A Year of No Significance: The Ming Dynasty in Decline

Creativity and Taoism: A Study of Chinese Philosophy, Art and Poetry

The Long March: The True History of Communist China's Founding Myth

The Man Who Loved China (Joseph Needham)

Daily Life in China on the Eve of the Mongol Invasion, 1250-1276 (Southern Song Dynasty)

Red Roulette: An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today's China

The Roman Empire and the Silk Routes: The Ancient World Economy and the Empires of Parthia, Central Asia and Han China

The Golden Peaches of Samarkand: A Study of Tang Exotics

Foreign Devils on the Silk Road

All the Tea in China

Red Sorrow: A Memoir

The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China's Search for Security (Andrew J. Nathan)

The Good Women of China: Hidden Voices (Xinren Xue)


Here are a few books which illuminate the complexities of the flow of trade, ideas and capital from the Bronze Age to the present:

The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good

Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century

The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History

The Loss of El Dorado: A Colonial History

Tristes Tropiques

The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time

Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century, Vol. 1: The Structure of Everyday Life (Fernand Braudel)

Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century, Vol. 2: The Wheels of Commerce

Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century, Vol. 3: The Perspective of the World




My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.

Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

Read excerpts of all three chapters

Podcast with Richard Bonugli: Self Reliance in the 21st Century (43 min)


My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Subscribe to my Substack for free





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Wednesday, January 17, 2024

How to Navigate Our Low-Trust, Increasingly Dysfunctional Society and Economy

Politicians and corporate managers have an enviable record of self-enrichment but very little to show in terms of putting the long-term interests of the citizenry above their own short-term gains.

This week's focus is on self-reliance, a topic of increasing relevance than is more complex that it may seem.

Sociologists differentiate between high-trust and low-trust societies: in high-trust social orders, citizens tend to trust institutions and each other to conform to social norms, enabling strangers to trust a vast circle of transactions and socio-economic ties. Low-trust societies are plagued with distrust of authority and institutions and fear of getting taken advantage of by strangers, so the circles of trust are small, inhibiting social mobility and economic growth.

Economies and political systems can also be understood as high-trust or low-trust. If the political system excels at rewarding insiders and incumbents while leaving critical problems unsolved, citizens have little reason to trust the system.

The same is true of economies that greatly enrich insiders and incumbents at the expense of the citizenry via monopoly/cartel price-gouging, shrinkflation, degrading the quality of goods and services and the immiseration of standard services, forcing customers to "upgrade" from wretched to merely dismal.

Conventional pundits and economists are constantly whining that Americans "just don't get it": they tout our soaring per capita wealth, i.e. we're getting richer, so everyone should be delighted, yet only 20% of the public are "satisfied with the way things are going."

What the well-compensated pundits and economists are ignoring (or are paid to ignore) is the decay of the U.S. from a high-trust-functional to a low-trust-dysfunctional society and economy: Americans will still go out of their way to aid strangers, but their trust in institutions has plummeted to lows, as has their trust in the political-corporate elites' leadership: politicians and corporate managers have an enviable record of self-enrichment but very little to show in terms of putting the long-term interests of the citizenry above their own short-term gains.

People understand the name of the game now is to spout all the expected optimistic PR of "innovation" and "serving the public" while maximizing their private gain at the expense of the nation. Offshoring America's essential industrial supply chains wasn't done to serve the nation; it was done to maximize profits, 90% of which flow to the top 10%. Pushing us into debt servitude is highly profitable, but it isn't benefiting us or the nation.

Americans were told to trust long, hyper-globalized single-source supply chains as "efficient" (i.e. profitable) and trustworthy, yet they've discovered these supply chains are vulnerable and fragile. Americans were told that corporate monopolies were selling them "innovations" when in fact they were being sold highly addictive (and therefore highly profitable) goods and services.

Americans were told that their financial security was increasing even as the U.S. economy became increasingly dependent on hyper-financialized asset bubbles and central bank bailouts, the precise opposite of stability. Rather than producing more financial security for the bottom 80%, these "innovations" greatly expanded the gulf between the wealthy and the increasingly precarious bottom 80%.

Americans were told to trust that the hyper-centralization of political and financial power would benefit them, when the evidence is piling up that this hyper-centralization has increased the dysfunction of core institutions and the fragility of essential systems.

Doesn't it ring hollow to glorify our soaring wealth while households declare bankruptcy due to medical bills, college students sign up for a lifetime of debt servitude to pay tuition and inflation has destroyed 20% of every wage earner's paycheck just since January 2020? All that "soaring wealth" is asymmetrically distributed, but let's not talk about that, let's talk about statistics that mask that asymmetry.

What the well-compensated pundits and economists are paid to ignore is the concentration of the vast majority of all this new wealth and income in the top 10%. Soaring wealth only widens wealth inequality; it doesn't benefit the nation, it weakens its foundations by accelerating the decay of trust in core institutions and systems.

What happens when high-trust decays to low-trust is the circle of reliable, trustworthy sources and people shrinks to the local, decentralized level. Rather than trust Big Ag, Big Fast-Food and supply chains of highly processed glop to feed us, we start turning to local sources of real food.

In the same way, we rediscover the value of thinking for ourselves rather than accepting self-serving memes-of-the-day. We rediscover the value of what Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote about in his 1841 essay Self-Reliance (free text, Project Gutenberg).

Emerson counsels us to "be our best selves," and not to count property wealth above all else. ("They measure their esteem of each other by what each has, and not by what each is.")

Emerson understood that the values of a society are the foundation of its economic order. A system lacking any principles and values other than greed and self-enrichment is a rotten structure doomed to collapse. It is not just the larger socio-economic order that needs a rock-solid value system; each individual must ground their choices and actions in a value system they have embraced on their own. ("Nothing can bring you peace but yourself. Nothing can bring you peace but the triumph of principles.")

What Emerson is espousing is self-reliance, in thought, in values, and in economic and financial matters. In today's world of crumbling hyper-globalization, self-reliance extends to the practical world of where our essential goods and services are coming from.

Gordon Long and I discuss these and many other aspects of Self-Reliance in the 21st Century in our wide-ranging podcast Self Reliance (45 min).



We discuss how the American economy has changed over the past 40 years, to the detriment of the nation's values and the security of its citizenry, and what self-reliance means today-- the topic of my book Self-Reliance in the 21st Century. (Read the first chapter for free.)

How can we best navigate our low-trust, increasingly dysfunctional society and economy? By strengthening our own self-reliance.




My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.

Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

Read excerpts of all three chapters

Podcast with Richard Bonugli: Self Reliance in the 21st Century (43 min)


My recent books:

Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases originated via links to Amazon products on this site.

The Asian Heroine Who Seduced Me (Novel) print $10.95, Kindle $6.95 Read an excerpt for free (PDF)

When You Can't Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal $18 print, $8.95 Kindle ebook; audiobook Read the first section for free (PDF)

Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $9.95, print $24, audiobook) Read Chapter One for free (PDF).

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake (Novel) $4.95 Kindle, $10.95 print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 Kindle, $15 print)
Read the first section for free


Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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