What If Corporate Earnings Have Topped Out?

The market may have reached cyclical highs in corporate earnings. That does not bode well for additional stock market advances.

If corporate earnings have topped out, what will push the stock market higher?The usual answer is "central bank intervention," but history suggests that in the long run, the market eventually correlates to corporate earnings. Earnings up, market up; earnings down, market down.

Frequent contributor B.C. recently shared some insightful charts of S&P 500 (SPX) earnings. Here are B.C.'s comments on the first chart:

Note that real earnings (CPI adjusted) in '09 fell to the levels of the 1920s-30s, 1890s, and 1870s, and to the levels of the 1970s in nominal terms. A "typical" cyclical decline would take earnings back to the long-term trend from 1932 and the log trend line at $40s-$50s from $87 today. 

Also, recall that the Fortune 300 firms have revenues equivalent to 50% to 100% of private GDP at $425,000/employee, so they are the economy. A decline of 50% for profits would be the equivalent of 10% of private GDP, which would match or exceed the decline in '08-'09, risking an increase in the Unemployment rate of 50-100% and a fiscal deficit exceeding 100% of tax receipts after Social Security and Medicare receipts.

The next two charts track long-term historic trends: here is B.C.'s commentary:

Reported earnings of the S&P 500 (SPX) are highly cyclical with a periodicity of ~51 months. Earnings are contracting year-over-year (yoy) as occurred in late '07 and early '08, early '01, etc. Profits as a percentage of GDP at 10-11% are 65-70% above the historical average and 130% above the historical average during recessions and bear market troughs, implying the risk of up to a 55-60% decline in profits and profits as a percentage of GDP, i.e., a roughly $1 trillion decline or an equivalent of 10% of private GDP.
The 10-yr. average P/E and 16- and 20-year real changes and real total returns to date for the secular bear market imply the risk of a crash at some point in the next 1/2 to 4 years and no real change to the S&P 500 for 20 years, indicating just how grossly overvalued stock prices are historically.

Thank you, B.C. for the charts and incisive commentary. Is it mere coincidence that the SPX has doubled over the past four years as corporate profits soared? If we haven't yet reached the 51-month cycle peak, we are certainly close. What happens to the post-QE market if earnings decline?

4th Quarter Earnings Will be an Unmitigated Disaster (EconMatters)

---

My new book Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It is now available in print and Kindle editions--10% to 20% discounts.

---

Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify or understand. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:

1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability
3. Diminishing returns
4. Centralization
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy

Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).

We are not powerless. Not accepting responsibility and being powerless are two sides of the same coin: once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.

10% discount on the Kindle edition: $8.95(retail $9.95)       print edition: $24 on Amazon.com
To receive a 20% discount on the print edition: $19.20 (retail $24), follow the link, open a Createspace account and enter discount code SJRGPLAB. (This is the only way I can offer a discount.)

Thank you, Steven B. ($5/month), for your marvelously generous subscription to this site -- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Thank you, Kerry W. ($25), for your splendidly generous contribution to this site --I am greatly honored by your support and readership.