Every time real personal income goes negative, a recession occurs. Now that personal income is falling, a recession is baked in.
An important caveat: the weak 6-month annualized comparison is against the spike in income at the end of '12.Still, the year-over-year and smoothed 6-month annualized rates were already falling below the historical recession threshold in late summer '12 and again in winter-spring this year.
A similar pattern trajectory occurred after recessions had begun (as per the National Bureau of Economic Research NBER):
Feb.-Mar. '82, Apr.-May '80, and Sept.-Oct. '79
Of course, the recessionary implications are bullish for war and for more TBTF bank printing for their balance sheets and offshore equity index futures accounts.
Things are falling apart--that is obvious. But why are they falling apart? The reasons are complex and global. Our economy and society have structural problems that cannot be solved by adding debt to debt. We are becoming poorer, not just from financial over-reach, but from fundamental forces that are not easy to identify or understand. We will cover the five core reasons why things are falling apart:
1. Debt and financialization
2. Crony capitalism and the elimination of accountability
3. Diminishing returns
5. Technological, financial and demographic changes in our economy
Complex systems weakened by diminishing returns collapse under their own weight and are replaced by systems that are simpler, faster and affordable. If we cling to the old ways, our system will disintegrate. If we want sustainable prosperity rather than collapse, we must embrace a new model that is Decentralized, Adaptive, Transparent and Accountable (DATA).
We are not powerless. Not accepting responsibility and being powerless are two sides of the same coin: once we accept responsibility, we become powerful.
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