When a Society Has Reached Its Limits, Reforms No Longer Fix What's Broken

Any reform that will be acceptable to the system's precariously balanced dependents will leave its structure and incentives untouched.

The most difficult part of my framework to grasp is the keystone: our system has reached its limits. The difficulty is that this is impossible to understand if one is embedded in the system's beliefs of how the world works and wedded to the system's sclerosis via self-interest.

Once self-interest dominates, it locks the system into its current configuration because attempting to change anything rouses resistance from whatever interests depend on that part of the status quo for their piece of the pie.

The sustainability of the entire system is of no concern because the only thing that matters is keeping our piece of the pie intact as-is. Nothing can change because that threatens somebody's share of the pie, i.e. how the system distributes income, gains, power and risk.

Everyone from the super-wealthy to low-income households fears any change that might reduce their security. Beneath our everyday awareness, a balance has been struck: if we just keep this exact arrangement as-is, everyone accepts the status quo.

This rigidity leads to sclerosis: the system has lost the flexibility and nimbleness needed to adapt. Any proposal that actually changes the socio-economic system is immediately struck off by those whose interests are threatened.

This leads to the substitution of artifice for authenticity--the other core concept that is impossible to understand if one is wedded to the status quo by self-interest and the fear of losing what we have.

Once a system has reached the point where authentic change becomes impossible because it disrupts the delicate balance of self-interest, it has reached its limits, and is set on run to failure, for a system that has lost its adaptive flexibility is doomed once conditions change.

Rather than face this disruptive reality, everyone wedded to the existing balance becomes dependent on expediencies that keep the system glued together, but at the cost of system stability. As self-interest and sclerosis dominate, the focus narrows to doing whatever it takes to maintain the increasingly unsustainable balance of interests.

This is how we've reached the point where the federal government borrows $2 trillion a year--27% of its entire outlays--to maintain the precarious balance of every interest group. That this is unsustainable is obvious, but since real change is impossible because of the system's limits, everyone approves of expediencies that only add to the destabilizing momentum of run to failure.

The system no longer considers truly new ideas, as these threaten the delicate balance of self-interests. Just as expediencies are artifice, so too are the cover stories masking the unsustainability of expediencies. To avoid facing the impossibility of the status quo continuing unchanged, all public dialog is reduced to cliches, delusions and fantasies.

These artifices create an illusion of stability and sustainability that I call The Big Con, a mindset in which everything is fake but this is all that's acceptable. So the tired cliches of capitalism and socialism are deployed as rallying cries or cudgels, with no actual understanding of what they mean because that would get in the way of the "message:" what's needed are fake facades and fantasies, not understanding.

This dependence on parodies, cliches, delusions and fantasies to maintain the illusion of sustainability is also called hyper-normalization: we accept the unsustainable as permanent because this is what the system incentivizes and rewards.

The system has reached its limits on every level: institutional, conceptual and structural. The incentives to maintain the facades that everything is working just fine and policy tweaks / technology wil fix whatever's broken and the disincentives to tell the truth are kept firmly in place by self-interest, even though these lock the system as a whole in run to failure.

This leads to extremes that destabilize the system from inside: extremes of wealth-power inequality, extremes of fantasy (technology and finance can fix all problems) and artifice that lead to where we are today, with absurdly transparent parodies and self-parodies being presented as serious solutions proposed by serious people.



Scholar / author Ray Huang (no relation to Jensen) summed this up in his book 1587, A Year of No Significance: The Ming Dynasty in Decline that traced how the Ming Dynasty reaching its internal limits led to its inevitable collapse:

"The year 1587 may seem to be insignificant; nevertheless, it is evident by that time the limit for the Ming dynasty had already been reached. It no longer mattered whether the ruler was conscientious or irresponsible, whether his chief counselor was enterprising or conformist, whether the generals were resourceful or incompetent, whether the civil officials were honest or corrupt, or whether the leading thinkers were radicals or conservatives--in the end they all failed to reach fulfillment."

But why can't the system regain control of these runaway forces? The answer is that any reform that will be acceptable to the system's precariously balanced dependents will leave its structure and incentives untouched.

"Innovations" and "solutions" will necessarily be superficial and for show because that preserves a system that has reached its limits, a system defined by choiceless choices that create an illusion of autonomy: Democrat / Republican, Apple / Android, a choiceless healthcare system, a choiceless higher education system, and so on.

Given its limits, the entire system has only one option: decline to the point that a seemingly modest crisis disrupts the last shreds of coherence in a system that is now dependent on the destabilizing expediencies of ever-expanding borrowing and credit-asset bubbles, and the parodies, PR, delusions and fantasies of The Big Con. The inevitable result is the system collapses under its own weight of self-serving sclerosis and artifice.

The incentives are to repeat what everyone wants to hear, which is the system is working fine and is sustainable because technology and finance will fix everything without changing anything. This describes a system that has reached its limits.

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Introducing ToxicBot (tm), The Bot That Tells Us What We Don't Want to Hear

Needless to say, the world isn't ready for ToxicBot (tm).

I'm finally ready to share a side project of mine, creating a chatbot / AI agent to answer queries without any sugarcoating, in effect telling us what we don't want to hear. I call it ToxicBot (tm) because in our culture of self-serving artifice and comforting delusions, the unvarnished truth is considered unbearably toxic.

In many cases, our resistance to whatever it is we don't want to hear is a measure of its accuracy. We don't want to hear it because it's a painful truth we've been avoiding, to our detriment.

Here's a sample of ToxicBot (tm) as therapist:

Patient 1: I know he's not perfect, but I'm really in love this time.

ToxicBot: When are you going to get tired of jumping from one co-dependent relationship with control-freak losers to another, with zero self-awareness or willingness to ask yourself why?

Patient 2: Every time we try to discuss something, we end up angry and frustrated.

ToxicBot: You're the one who's angry and frustrated, but you never take responsibility for your responses. You sound like a 5-year old blaming everyone else for your self-created misfortunes.

Here's a sample of ToxicBot (tm) as corporate consultant:

Corporate: give us an actionable transition plan to agentic AI.

ToxicBot: Aura farming, actionable leadership, agentic transition--if cliches were money, you could retire right now. You and your team are clueless lemmings, trying to find someone else to follow so you don't have to do any original thinking of your own.

ToxicBot, tell us about AI super-abundance.

ToxicBot: What AI is generating is a super-abundance of malicious uses that place enormous costs on every user of the Internet, in effect generating profits for the malicious users and costs for everyone else. The over-reliance on shoddy software and hardware in products and services is unleashing a systemic collapse in durability and utility across the entire global economy. Both of these are Anti-Progress, not Progress. Those who deny this or refuse to admit it are delusional, insisting the buck-naked Emperor is dressed in amazing finery.

Let's ask ToxicBot (tm) how we can fix the $40 trillion in federal debt problem:

Concerned Citizen: Everyone knows the federal debt is unsustainable; what's the solution?

ToxicBot: As long as all those who own the debt or benefit from the borrowing refuse to accept any sacrifices, there is no solution other than the collapse of the whole financial system, as only collapse will end the reliance on expediencies and force sacrifices on everyone seeking delusional, sacrifice-free technocratic "solutions" because they want a fantasy Hollywood ending. There is no upside to self-delusion.



Needless to say, the world isn't ready for ToxicBot (tm), as this conversation illustrates:



So I'm developing HappyStoryBot (tm): everything is fantastic, there's upside everywhere, solutions abound, stablecoins, fusion and an endless parade of pretense--and indignation (How dare you!) if the pretense is challenged. Oh, and you're all brilliant, fabulous, etc.

We all want to be appreciated for our fine qualities and efforts, but this is different from depending on insincere praise, rote flattery and sappy sycophancy for a positive sense of selfhood.



If we don't want real solutions, we just want pain-free, sacrifice-free simulacra of solutions that require nothing more than arranging the eventual consequences to land on those without sufficient power to escape the consequences--that only accelerates collapse.

NOTE: ToxicBot does not exist.

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"Angry Voters": What Are We Angry About?

Maybe voters are frustrated that no matter who they elect, nothing in the economic machinery of soaring inequality, debt and servitude changes.

Here's the mainstream summary of the midterm election results: Angry Voters Usher in Beginning of the End to the Trump Era.

And what are voters angry about? It's a fairly lengthy shopping list:

"Many voters told pollsters and interviewers that they felt hoodwinked by Mr. Trump, believing that he was going to bring down prices and not start new wars. They expected him to close the border, but bristled at what they saw as heavy-handed arrests of people living in the country for years. They rebelled against the tariffs that increased costs for consumers."

OK, fair enough. Those are all legitimate issues. But I submit voters are also angry about a reality larger than any of those issues: no matter which party they vote for, nothing changes. Scrape off the culture wars hot-button topics designed to inflame the loyalists and generate conveniently distracting rage and indignation, and we find that nothing actually changes in what matters to the hard-working bottom 90% who are being stripmined by the accelerating decline in the purchasing power of their earnings.

Look carefully at these three charts and point out the reversal of the primary trends delivered by either political party. You can't, because the policies and Imperial Project continue on the same trajectory regardless of which party or administration is in power.

Here is a chart of TCMDO, total debt. We can call it "living on money borrowed from the future." Note that way back in 1980, before the "borrow our way to prosperity" fantasy became the unofficial policy of the status quo, the ratio of GDP to total debt was 1.67: $3 trillion in GDP, $5 trillion in total debt.

Now the ratio is 3.7: $30.7 in GDP and $115 trillion in debt. So how is "borrowing our way to prosperity" working? This is a parody of a functional, sustainable economy. Both parties have relied on soaring debt to win the popularity contest of who promises more "free money" to the elites who fund their campaigns and the electorate.

Never mind it's not actually "free": we've perfected kicking the can down the road.



Next up: soaring wealth-income inequality: we now live in a highly stratified society of haves and have-Nots, in which the Haves have little or no contact with the Have-Nots other than Amazon deliveries and wait staff.

So show us where one party or the other reversed this geometric rise in inequality. You can't. Relying on inflating credit-asset bubbles for a politically useful illusion of "growth" has an unavoidable side-effect: credit-asset bubbles enrich the top 10% who already own assets and have the income to enjoy the ride, with the gains concentrated in the top 1%.



Wages' share of the economy has been in a stairstep decline for 50 years as capital has been favored by both parties and the Federal Reserve, the central bank. Both parties have maintained an illusion of 'growth" that rewards the least productive at the expense of the most productive.



Both parties have been equally pleased to oversee the gaming of statistics to support this illusion of "growth" and "low inflation" that funnels the gains to the top 0.1% who fund political campaigns. The political toadies in the Supreme Court and Federal Reserve have dutifully rigged the status quo to remain unchanged, so the revolving door of elections maintain the illusion of "choice" and "democracy."

Our two-party system is like being offered two "competing" brands of toilet paper, both owned by the same corporation. Consider the Imperial Project of Endless Wars (TM). the players in the war room change, but the game of Wars of Choice continues on regardless of who's at the table.



The same can be said of our Wall Street Casino Economy, filled with gamblers desperate to win big enough to escape penury, usury, student-debt servitude and Tax Donkey indenturement. The corrupt game doesn't change when one party wins or loses; nothing changes in the casino except a slight modification of who gets VIP status.

The only potential for real change is a third party that introduces the possibility of closing down the war room and the casino and cashiering all the toadies maintaining a status quo adept at illusion and artifice.

Maybe voters are frustrated that no matter who they elect, nothing in the economic machinery of soaring inequality, debt and servitude changes. Shopping for political change is like shopping for healthcare insurance: we have no real choice. Maintaining the illusion of choice benefits both parties at the expense of the citizenry.

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5,200 Miles: Impressions of the US Economy

What's the value proposition of immersing ourselves in the real world?

Longtime correspondent Buck V. recently reminded me of a timeless quote from Yogi Berra: "You can observe a lot just by watching." Buck added: With the corollary being "you can hear a lot just by listening.") Having completed a 5,200 mile camping trip around the American West, I had a chance to "observe a lot just by watching" and "hear a lot just by listening."

Everything I mention will sound so obvious that it doesn't seem worthy of comment, and that is why it's worthy of comment.

The real world is not at all like the abstract, symbolic "world" displayed on screens. Replacing looking at screens with looking at real life is a good example of "You can observe a lot just by watching."

The weather matters more than anything displayed on a screen. Drive a few thousand miles through the Western states and one observes large-scale agriculture. In drier climates, the primary crop is fodder to feed the animals we raise to milk, shear and eat. You will occasionally observe bright-green fields which are irrigated, generally by water from a river or extracted from an aquifer.

Most large-scale agriculture isn't irrigated. It depends on rain and cooperative weather.

Electrons in a data center and images on a screen cannot make it rain or refill an aquifer. The abstract, symbolic layer we pay so much attention to can't change the weather. This is too obvious to matter, until it does.

Convenience comes in one package: diesel. Grocery stores in small towns stock wonderfully fresh and affordable produce from distant lands, California or an even more distant foreign farm. The gas stations all have diesel and gasoline to fill our tanks. This abundance of convenience--too obvious to be worthy of comment--is remarkable. Equally obvious and therefore unworthy of comment is that all this convenience depends on diesel fuel.

The long trains--70, 80 or 100 cars in length, pulled by multiple Locomotives--are powered by diesel. So are the thousands of large trucks that distribute convenience to every corner of our remarkably large nation. All the rail and all the roads take a beating and must be constantly maintained. Roadwork is everywhere. This too is too obvious to be worthy of comment.

Those who own 90% of the financial wealth of the nation are drooling over the profits to be reaped by replacing 400,000 truck drivers with AI. Diesel doesn't seem to enter the picture. I know--too obvious to be worthy of comment. The screen is all about increasing profits by any means available, and nothing else matters. Until it does.

You don't see Tesla vehicles on the road or charging stations, because the distances exceed the limits of electric vehicle ranges. Not the theoretical range, the real-world range. There's a chicken and egg aspect: why invest in charging stations for so few customers, so nobody buys electric vehicles because there's so few charging stations.

What you do see are long 80-car trains of coal being pulled across the landscape. This is not a value judgment, it's an observation: "You can observe a lot just by watching."

If we tear our eyes from screens and look at the real world, all sorts of things become absolutely remarkable.

Those who own 90% of the financial wealth of the nation are drooling over the profits to be reaped by optimizing everything with AI. What's obvious--and therefore unworthy of comment--is virtually every aspect of the American economy is already optimized.

A relative handful of the workforce manages to grow hundreds of millions of tons of fodder and turn this into food for us and our pets. Every such enterprise is already optimized for efficiency. Every one requires special knowledge and deep experience.

What AI replaces is abstract, symbolic busy-work that takes place on screens, most of which is superfluous, an artifact of too much money seeking ways to make more money without producing anything real.

Most people are decent and hard-working. Maybe people don't want a robot to replace their neighbor the Walmart greeter just to make a Tech Bro billionaire and his pals even wealthier and more powerful. Maybe this is so obvious that it's unworthy of comment.

Yes, there is a place for screens and data and information and entertainment. The question isn't about that; the question is whether there's any space left in our lives to "observe a lot just by watching."

Ours is a big, beautiful land. It is still possible to escape the abstract, symbolic, intentionally synthetic, commoditized, addictive digital bubble, turn off the screens and the music and all the other distractions and just listen and observe. What's the value proposition of immersing ourselves in the real world? The only way to get an answer is to "observe a lot just by watching."



New podcast: Global Uncertainties may result in Nonlinear, Self-Reinforcing Instability (26:31 min)

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Controlling the Narrative Is Not the Same As Controlling the World

This is Essay #9 in the series Truth Be Told.

The core dynamic of this era is the notion that controlling the narrative controls the world, as persuading the populace to believe something is true controls their convictions which then control their behaviors. Centralized powers discovered the potential for narrative control to control the world in the 20th century, as mass communications enabled centralized control of what is presented as true and important.

Propaganda has an ugly tone, so now we say narrative control, which is of course a comically obvious propaganda technique. We call propaganda designed to financially benefit a private entity marketing, a key component in what I call privatized totalitarianism: establish a monopoly that controls a key mass communication technology--a social media platform, search, smart phones, etc.--and voila, privatized totalitarianism controls the medium which controls the message.

Controlling what the populace believes to be true appears to control the world, but Controlling the Narrative Is Not the Same As Controlling the World. This is becoming increasingly clear as the status quo narratives--everything's going great, AI will deliver super-abundance to everyone, inflation is low, etc.--are now so detached from what we experience that they are inducing mass psychosis.

The incentive is obvious: persuade the populace to accept an arrangement that enriches and empowers those in control, and you no longer have to deliver authentic Progress or Prosperity, you only need to deliver artifice: fake statistics, fake claims presented as certainties, a ceaselessly promoted narrative in which everything is fake.

But narrative control doesn't actually control the world. A rancher told us the cost of fodder has doubled in the past year. That's the real world of weather and the cost of energy. Telling us that inflation is only 3.6% while healthcare premiums go up 13% a year, insurance costs triple and beef is now a luxury item is a parody of factual reporting.

The Pendulum of History has reached an extreme of artifice and narrative control that will break the status quo as the gulf between the fake and the real widens to the point the bridge connecting them collapses.

The social control of replacing authenticity with artifice will backfire and the pendulum will swing back to punishing self-serving artifice rather than rewarding it.

Yes, yes, I know this is "impossible." Those wielding the machinery of social control have god-like powers that will never diminish, they will only increase, etc. But everything is fake and mass psychosis are not stable arrangements. Artifice is self-liquidating.

The pendulum has reached an extreme of parody that cannot be pushed any further, and as the real world intrudes, all the narrative control in the world won't actually control the real world.



New podcast: Global Uncertainties may result in Nonlinear, Self-Reinforcing Instability (26:31 min)

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New collection of five intriguing stories: Jumble Bin Stories (Kindle $6, print $12) read samples for free (PDF)

My book Investing In Revolution is available ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)


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