Friday, April 16, 2010

Housing and the Collapse of Upward Mobility

by Charles Hugh Smith


The pathway of upward mobility in the postwar era was straightforward: a college degree and home ownership. The upward-mobility value of homeownership is now in doubt.

In the postwar period of 1945-2005, the way to move up in America was to earn a college degree and become a homeowner. By several measures, upward mobility has ceased to be a standard feature of American life: Is America's Middle Class Going the Way of China? (Cam Hui)

The article compares present-day America with the Communist Party-dominated People's Republic of China, and concludes both are run by small financial and political Elites which are largely inherited positions.

Yes, Ivy League universities are still pathways to power and wealth, but these are essentially Upper Caste positions which serve the interests of the Power Elites, doing the dirty work and the heavy lifting of the status quo.

In the good old days circa 1945-2005, buying a house opened up a much broader pathway to upward mobility than a slot in an Elite university. Regardless of one's education or job, if you could buy a house, then the big tax breaks of homeownership began cutting one's taxes while increasing the "savings" in home equity. Even without any appreciation, a mortgage was still a type of forced savings; the accumulated equity could be passed on to one's children when the mortgage was paid off.

Inheritable wealth defines "middle class:" poor people don't have any assets to pass on, and so three generations later, the family is still poor. Families which accumulated assets in the form of the family home became middle-class by accumulating the foundations of wealth for future generations.

As the saying goes, it takes three generations to produce a musician.

Now the average American household has little to no equity. The equity was either squandered in big-spending drawdowns of equity via home equity lines of credit, or it was lost in "moving up" in the housing bubble to costly big homes which have since deflated in value, wiping out the household equity--perhaps equity that had slowly been accumulated over three generations.

This is the total equity of all household real estate, which includes the 1/3 of homes owned free and clear. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were51,487,282 housing units with a mortgage and 23,875,803 Housing units without a mortgage as of 2008.

There is no way to ascertain the value of the mortgage-free homes, but if we reckon they are roughly equivalent to homes with mortgages, then we would have to conclude that the equity in free-and-clear homes is roughly 32% of real estate owned.

(Given that it is often wealthy households which own homes outright, it may well be that the 24 million homes owned free-and-clear make up a far larger share of equity than the raw number of homes might suggest.)

That means there is at best 6% equity in the other 51 million homes with mortgages. Total equity is 38%, deduct the 32% in non-mortgaged homes, and that leaves 6% spread amongst the 51 million mortgaged homes.

In effect, there is no inheritable wealth left in most mortgaged homes. Many homes have negative equity--they are worth less than their mortgages--so perhaps the equity in some of the 51 million mortgaged homes is higher than 6%.

Nonetheless, a quick look at the chart reveals the awful truth: inheritable wealth held in household real estate has plummeted from 70% of total value to 38%. In essence, only those households who own valuable homes free and clear have any wealth to pass on to their offspring.

That matters, because most U.S. households hold no appreciable wealth beyond their homes. A thin sliver of the nation's financial wealth (7%) is spread amongst 108 million households while 83% is concentrated in the top 10% 13 million households.

Note the difference between net worth which includes real estate and financial wealth, which does not. The bottom 80% held 15% of the nation's net worth in 2007 (15% of $64 trillion) and 7% of its financial assets (7% of $48 trillion).

If we look up all the gory details in the Fed Flow of Funds, we find that household real estate fell from $23 trillion in 2006 to $16.5 trillion at the end of 2009. That is a decline of $6.5 trillion, more than half the total $11 trillion lost in the credit/housing bust.

Home mortgages have fallen a negligible amount, from $10.48 trillion in 2007 to $10.26 trillion at the end of 2009. As of the end of 2009, total equity in household real estate was a paltry $6.24 trillion of which about $5.25 trillion was held in free-and-clear homes (32% of all household real estate, i.e. 32% of $16.5 trillion).

That leaves about $1 trillion--a mere 1.85% of the nation's total net worth-- of equity in the 51 million homes with mortgages.

That is staggering conclusion, for it suggests that the bottom 80% of the nation's households which own a home have virtually no inheritable wealth left in their homes. And without that equity, what foundation of wealth is left? Their 7% share of the nation's financial wealth? That is 7% of $45 trillion, or $3 trillion, including all stocks, bonds and securities in IRAs, 401K retirement funds, savings and other accounts.

That's $3 trillion held by 108 million households, compared to $32.4 trillion held by the top 5% of households (72% of $45 trillion), roughly 7 million households.

The orgy of speculation, leverage and debt incentivized by the credit/housing bubble of 2000-2006 has, in the aftermath of the bubble's bursting, destroyed most of the nation's middle-class wealth. In effect, three generations of accumulated equity was blown off in "wannabe wealthy" consumption and speculation.

Now, in the post-bubble phase, things look bleak. While there are no drivers for real estate appreciation, there are four trends driving further depreciation of housing:

1. The Balance Sheet Recession which the U.S. is deeply mired in and which it cannot escape without writing off trillions in bad debt, uncollectible derivatives, defaulted home mortgages, distressed commercial real estate mortgages and junk corprorate debt. The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions: What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and China Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005 (Richard Koo)

2. The demographics of the Baby Boom selling off their big suburban homes and second homes, while the generations behind them have poor job prospects, higher taxes and fewer numbers of potential buyers.

3. Interest rates are rising, which is negative for housing valuations.

4. If inflation kicks in and housing stays nominally flat, owners will see the purchasing power of their equity eaten away, as occurred in the 1980-84 period when housing values flattened as interest rates rose but inflation continued eating away at equity.

I address these three issues in Three Challenges to a Recovery in Housing.

These macro-trends effectively end the entire notion that buying a house is a path to inheritable wealth and upward mobility.


If you haven't visited the forum, here's a place to start. Click on the link below and then select "new posts." You'll get to see what other oftwominds.com readers and contributors are discussing/sharing.

DailyJava.net is now open for aggregating our collective intelligence.


Order Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation and/or Survival+ The Primer from your local bookseller or from amazon.com or in ebook and Kindle formats.A 20% discount is available from the publisher.

Of Two Minds is now available via Kindle: Of Two Minds blog-Kindle

Thank you, Michael H. ($25), for your continuing generosity of cash and ideas to the site (via mail). I am greatly honored by your support and readership. Thank you, Judd H. ($40), for your superbly generous donation to the site (via mail). I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


Our Privacy Policy:


Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative). If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.


PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS


This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel’s General Data Protection Notice. https://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/


Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.


Regarding Cookies:


This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.


Our Commission Policy:

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP