Wednesday, January 07, 2015

2015: Everything Can Be Fixed by Printing More Money

To question money-printing as the one-size-fits-all solution to every economic problem is to question the power structure of the status quo.


It is tiresomely obvious that we live in an era dominated by the idea that virtually all economic difficulties can be fixed by printing more money. There are various means of distributing the new money, but the dominant ideology is really very simple:whatever the problem might be, the solution is to print more money and/or issue more credit.

If the problem persists, clearly, we didn't print enough money/credit.

That such a simplistic formula might not work cannot be questioned, as money-printing is the source of all political and financial power. To question money-printing as the one-size-fits-all solution to every economic problem is to question the power structure of the status quo.
And that, of course, is not allowed.

Today's essay on money-printing and power was written by longtime contributor/essayist Jeff W. Jeff titled his commentary How You Can Tell If You Are Living under the Rule of Money Printers.


How You Can Tell If You Are Living under the Rule of Money Printers
by Jeff W.

"In most of human history, people have lived under the rule of taxing authorities. The way a taxation system works is easy for anyone to understand. Businesses and individuals pay taxes to the state, and the state spends that tax money on armies, road construction, police, courts and jails, education, propaganda, lavish lifestyles for the top dogs, etc.

But what if you live under a regime of people who obtain their wealth not through taxation but through money printing? The money printers will not tell you that they are in power over you. 

Money printers always go to considerable lengths to disguise their money printing. The money they print in today's world doesn't just roll off government printing presses; it is loaned into existence by a central bank or other banks, which makes the whole process of money creation much more difficult for citizens to understand. So without them telling you that they rule over you, how can you know?

In this discussion, I shall list some of the ways a money printing regime behaves differently from a taxation regime. You can then identify a money printing regime by its actions.

A taxation regime prospers when its tax haul increases. Thus an intelligently-managed taxation-funded regime will take actions to promote the general welfare, as the U.S. Constitution calls it. This regime wants businesses and individuals to prosper so that it can obtain a larger tax haul from them. Thus the interests of the people and of the taxation regime are aligned. They become partners, so to speak, in desiring increased prosperity, and they share in that increased prosperity if it comes.

In a well-managed taxation regime, the state incentives entrepreneurs and workers by allowing them to keep a large share of their earnings. Taxation regimes make management mistakes all the time, setting taxes too high or allowing corruption to seep into their administrations, but under an honest and intelligent taxation regime, the state and the people can work together to achieve success.

Taxation regimes sometimes seek to add to their tax hauls by enlarging their borders. This is often done through warfare. Taxation regimes can go bad in a variety of ways. But when the U.S. Founders wrote the Constitution, they were trying to set up a decent, durable taxation regime, and the federal government they created did manage to operate successfully for a number of years.

If, however, a nation's elites get their wealth and power through money printing, they have a very different path to success. Their success is measured in terms of the total wealth they can take for themselves by printing money and distributing it to themselves and their friends. How is their wealth haul from money printing maximized?

First they seek to enlarge the circulation area of their fiat. A small country, such as Venezuela, cannot print too much fiat without setting off destructive double-digit inflation or disastrous triple-digit hyperinflation. A large country with a large fiat circulation area extending beyond its geographic borders can print much more without creating damaging inflation. Thus a money printing regime will not seek so much to expand its borders as to expand the circulation area of its fiat, such as by making agreements with oil-producing states in the Middle East to price their oil in dollars. Requiring that the dollar be used for bank reserves is another way to expand its circulation. 

A taxation regime, by contrast, that uses a gold-backed currency will not generally to seek to expand its currency's circulation zone beyond its borders.

The value of a fiat, like the value of anything else, is determined by the opposing forces of supply and demand. In a money printing regime, the money printers will print, print, print in order to enrich themselves, which of course increases the supply of the fiat and reduces its value. But if at the same time, the money printers take actions to increase the demand for their fiat, their fiat can hold its value even as they furiously print. One way to increase the demand is to enlarge the circulation zone, but there are also several other ways to prop up demand for a fiat currency.

They will tend to impose high taxes. Taxes increase the demand for fiat, as taxpayers must have fiat in order to pay their tax assessments. The optimal rate of taxation in order to spur maximum fiat demand is higher than the Laffer Curve optimum needed for a maximum tax haul. A money printing regime is thus also a high taxing regime.

They will create high levels of debt. This is done for two reasons. One is that under the debt money system that is used in the world today, the act of creating debt and printing money is one and the same. In order to print and take advantage of wealth created by that money printing, debt must necessarily be created at the same time. The other is that debt creates demand for fiat, as debtors must have fiat in order to make their debt payments. Any kind of debt payable in the regime's fiat, whether public or private, adds to the demand for that fiat.

They will try to enlarge the marketplace of goods and services for sale cheap in exchange for the fiat. This adds to the demand. If I am holding Venezuelan bolivars, the range of goods and services that I can buy in exchange for them is relatively limited. If I have, U.S. dollars, however, I can buy millions of different things. This adds to the value of the dollar. Those who hold bolivars will often want to exchange them for dollars if, for example, they want to buy something from Amazon.

They like it when other states peg their fiat to the fiat. This has the effect of enlarging the circulation zone. When China does pegs its yuan to the dollar, it also helps create a huge marketplace of cheap goods. Fiat demand is thus boosted two ways by pegging Chinese currency to the dollar.

They intervene in currency exchange markets to prop up the value of the fiat. This is the direct approach to increasing the demand for a fiat: go into the market and buy it. This demand is artificial, but is very effective in increasing the value of the fiat. It should be noted that taxation regimes often seek to decrease the value of their fiat in order to spur exports of manufactured items, which will in turn increase employment and spur increased tax revenues. A money printing regime, by contrast, will seek to prop up the value of its fiat, not caring about its nation's manufacturers.

Periodically in human history there have been sad episodes where rulers have attempted to set prices by decree in order to maintain the value of their debased currencies. Such price suppression attempts have always ended in failure, often accompanied by political chaos and bloodshed. Modern techniques of price suppression, however, have replaced these primitive methods of suppressing prices (which were attempted in the U.S. as recently as 1973 under the name of wage and price controls). Price suppression is an unmistakable characteristic of a money printing regime.

They suppress wages. In order to maximize wealth obtained from money printing, it is not only necessary to print a lot of fiat each year, it is also necessary that the wealth obtained from that money printing be restricted to a select few. When a worker gets a pay increase because of inflation, that worker is getting a piece of the wealth that the money printers think they should have. The money printers' maximize their wealth when all the freshly-printed fiat goes to them and the workers get no pay increase or the workers' incomes, as measured in the fiat, actually decline.

In order to suppress wages, money printers advocate maximum female participation in the workplace, open borders immigration and global labor arbitrage. Taxation regimes seek to increase taxpayers' wages. Pre-1971 the federal government supported private sector labor unions; afterward it opposed them in surreptitious ways, and today private sector labor unions have almost ceased to exist.

They suppress commodity speculation. In bygone days, debased currency regimes would punish hoarders and speculators by hanging them or shooting them and confiscating their hoards. Today hoarders and speculators are punished by market manipulation, huge waves of naked shorting in commodity exchanges. Here again the money printers want all of the wealth from money printing to come to them; they do not want to share any of it with hoarders and speculators.

They promote free trade. It sounds like a good thing, to promote free trade. But they do not promote free trade because they believe in freedom. They do it to suppress prices. I was interested to watch an interview with a Navy admiral recently where he said the purpose of the U.S. Navy was "to protect free trade." I thought the Navy's purpose was to protect the United States, but the money printers have other uses for it.

A feature of a money printing regime is that it makes some of its beneficiaries enormously, obscenely rich, much more so than in a taxation regime. Some of this surplus cash can be used to impose control over the elected government, either by bribery, or blackmail when the money printers control the apparatus of the surveillance state.

The banks control the government. As Illinois Senator Durbin admitted in 2009, "The banks -- hard to believe in a time when we're facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created -- are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place." In a taxation regime, the banks are one powerful interest group among many. In a money printing regime in a debt money system, the banks rule supreme.

Is your government behaving like a money printing regime? If so, there is probably not much you can do about it. The money printers have an infinite supply of fiat that they can use at any time to maintain their grip on power. A successful attack on them, if it is to come, will likely come from outside, from rival states who are jealous of rival money printers.

One thing is clear to me. There can be no meaningful reform in the U.S. until the money printers are removed from power. As long their regime is in control, they can only be expected to continue to strip citizens of their wealth through the various means listed above. It was a sad day in the 1970's when the U.S. came under the rule of the money printers, and it has been a sad era ever since. There is no telling when it might end."


Thank you, Jeff, for the clear description of our money-printing power structure.

Admin. note: I will be off-line for the remainder of the month, other than a few moments here and there to post new content. Thank you for your readership and understanding. 



Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy(Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20)
go to Kindle edition
Are you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible. And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $20

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers(25 minutes, YouTube) 



NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.


Thank you, Christopher C. ($25), for your much-appreciated generous contribution to this site-- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Read more...

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

2015: Asymmetric Oil Warfare

Let's consider some examples of potential asymmetric-warfare tactics as they relate to the price of oil.


The world has habituated to the never-ending undeclared war over ownership and access to hydrocarbons. Now we are entering a new phase of asymmetric war being waged not over oil but the price of oil. Many observers see a parallel in Saudi Arabia's stated intent to force other exporters to cut their production (if they want to maintain the price of their oil) to the mid-1980s, when a similar oil-pricing war drove prices to lows that helped bankrupt the Soviet Union.

While there are certainly parallels to that period of superpower confrontation and the Saudis' use of the oil weapon, it seems to me that the current era is less a replay of the 1980s than a new chapter in asymmetric warfare that may see a variety of oil-related weapons being deployed.

Asymmetric warfare is defined as war between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly, or whose strategy or tactics differ significantly. Oil exporters come in a variety of sizes and favors, as do major oil producers and consumers (for example, the U.S. is a major producer but it still imports oil from other producers).

Each party with an interest in the price of oil has a different set of weapons, goals, and relative military/financial power.

What does that mean in the undeclared war over the price of oil? Let's consider some examples of potential asymmetric-warfare tactics as they relate to the price of oil.

1. One way to crimp the production of one's perceived opponents is to blow up a few pipelines or port facilities via guerrilla-type strikes, a.k.a. "terrorist attacks" that would have an immediate effect on supply and thus on the global price of oil, which is remarkably sensitive to supply and demand on the margins.

The ability to exploit physical supply vulnerabilities has become widespread, via proxy irregulars and relatively easy access to explosives.

The asymmetry between the enormous difficulty in protecting long supply chains and costly infrastructure and the relatively low cost of disrupting supply is obvious.

2. Digital disruption of supply facilities via Stuxnet-type computer worms. A thumb drive inserted into a network node can unleash all sorts of electronic mayhem that shuts down key oil-supply choke points.

3. Financial strategies that support one's domestic producers regardless of current global prices. Those producing nations that can print their own credit and currency--for example, the U.S. Federal Reserve--can quietly underwrite domestic production by buying shale-oil related junk bonds via proxies, effectively burying the debt.

Defaults? What defaults? The bonds are either refinanced via proxies or enter suspended animation in forbearance, i.e. the interest is not being paid but the owner of the debt (the Fed) doesn't care.

4. Oil exporters with decrepit oil-production infrastructure can be squeezed by restricting their access to the credit needed to repair/overhaul their infrastructure. Their production will decline as things literally fall apart.

Alternatively, cheap credit can be extended to underfunded exporters to keep production high.

5. A key central bank (for example, the Fed) can cease issuing money/credit and thereby trigger a global slowdown that constricts demand. If oil production remains high, price plummets as the erosion in demand takes hold.

6. A central bank might decide to support the price of oil not by influencing physical supply or demand but by buying up vast quantities of futures contracts. Such buying would eventually trigger a short-covering rally that would push the price of oil significantly higher, at least in the short-term, regardless of physical supply-demand.

These are a few of many possibilities of asymmetric warfare that could be applied to the price of oil. 



Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy(Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20)
go to Kindle edition
Are you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible. And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $20

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers(25 minutes, YouTube) 




NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.

Thank you, Paul H. ($10), for your much-appreciated generous contribution to this site-- I am greatly honored by your support and readership.

Read more...

Monday, January 05, 2015

2015: Now That the Fed Drove Everyone Into Ruinously Risky Bets....

It is impossible for everyone to sell at the top before the implosion; the assets are owned by someone all the way down.


The central bank/state plan for 2015 is a continuation of the same plan that's been in play since 2009: drive everyone with any cash or capital into ruinously risky bets. The problem for the central bankers/states driving everyone into risk assets is the yields on these bets are entering the exhaustion zone of marginal returns.

In other words, what worked wonderfully for years no longer works at all.

Another way of saying the same thing is apparent stability gives way to instability and apparent predictability gives way to unpredictability. The hubris described yesterday (2015: A World Ruled by Hubris, Willful Blindness and Desperation) arises from the overweening confidence of central bankers that this same tired gambit of pushing assets higher by pushing capital and speculative money into risk assets can be played successfully with no limits.

But there are limits. A short list of limits might include:

1. Marginal borrowers/buyers: the game now is to lower interest rates and mortgages rates so ever-more marginal auto and house buyers can qualify for ever-less prudent loans.

This works until it doesn't, as marginal borrowers/buyers are last on, first off: they default at the first lay-off, medical emergency, etc. Defaults tend to pyramid in recessions as lay-offs and financial stress spreads quickly through those living paycheck to paycheck.

2. The Greater Fool: All Ponzi schemes rely on an ever-expanding pool of greater fools who buy into the scheme and reward the previous (much smaller) cohort of greater fools. Ponzi schemes fail because the pool of greater fools is finite, but the scheme demands an ever-expanding pool of participants to function.

All Ponzi schemes eventually fail, though each is declared financially sound because this time it's different (though it never is). The number of greater fools required to keep the scheme going eventually exceeds the population of marginal borrowers/buyers who have yet to buy in.

At that point, the asset bubble collapses, not from any specific cause, but from the draining of the pool of greater fools: with nobody left to buy, sellers find the market is suddenly bidless--that is, there are no buyers at any price.

3. Highly leveraged speculators have their fingers on the sell button. The name of the game for central bankers for six years has been liquidity: make credit cheap and abundant, especially to hot-money financiers and speculators.

Borrowing immense sums to speculate in expanding asset bubbles is highly profitable as long as the bubble continues expanding. But when the pool of greater fools has been drained and the bubble starts deflating, leveraged bets generate outsized losses. As a result, leveraged speculators must sell first and ask questions later.

Selling begets selling, as other speculators who hesitated must sell before their own losses become ruinous.

4. Everyone's all-in: greater fools may be willing to buy more risk assets, but eventually they reach the limit of their ability to borrow/buy. At that point, their borrowing/buying ceases.

Then the leveraging up reverses into deleveraging, and the highly leveraged greater fools have to sell to meet margin calls.

All asset bubbles are Ponzi Schemes; so are social welfare programs and unfunded liabilities such as Medicare:



In a zero-yield world of rising rents, everyone is forced into risky stock market and housing bubbles. Central banks have lowered the yield on savings to near-zero, forcing capital to seek returns in risk assets such as stocks, junk bonds and real estate.

As rents rise, the financial logic of buying a house with a low-interest mortgage becomes undeniable: when it costs less per month to buy a house than to rent the same dwelling, why not buy?

This demand pushes the asset class ever higher, generating a self-reinforcing feedback loop that rewards buyers at every stage except the last: when the bubble finally pops, the last cohort of greater fools is destroyed financially, and the previous sets of greater fools are crippled as assets go bidless or lose much of the value.

During this expansion phase, every borrower/buyer is a financial genius, and every central bank that drove everyone into ruinously risky assets is omnipotent and god-like. But when the limits that are intrinsic to Ponzi Schemes are reached and the asset bubbles deflate violently and unpredictably, the geniuses face financial ruin and the central bankers are revealed as scammers, liars and hubris-soaked fools.

Meanwhile, those who resisted the siren song of central bankers to risk their capital and incomes in asset bubbles are derided as Bears who have missed out on the Greatest Bull Market of All Time. When the wheels fall off, all the smart guys naturally claim to have exited at the top. But it is impossible for everyone to sell at the top; the assets are owned by someone all the way down.

All those owners will lose, and continue losing, until the asset is repossessed, sold or surrendered.

The Fed's zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) has made safe assets--cash and savings--into trash; savings earn less than inflation, meaning that holding safe assets is a losing proposition.

The more capital that is driven into risk assets, the greater the financial devastation when the asset bubbles all pop, which they inevitably will--and not in some distant future. 



Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy(Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20)
go to Kindle edition
Are you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $20

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers(25 minutes, YouTube) 



NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.

Thank you, Richard O. ($50), for your superbly generous contribution to this site-- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

Read more...

Sunday, January 04, 2015

2015: A World Ruled by Hubris, Willful Blindness and Desperation

Issuing lies and pursuing willful blindness is not leadership: it's failure on a grand scale.


Rather than issue predictions for 2015, this week I'll cover themes that I believe will be consequential in the year ahead.

The first theme is the dominant psychological dynamic of global leadership, which can be distilled down to a toxic brew of Hubris, Willful Blindness and Desperation.

Examples of leadership hubris abound, and they all arise from the false confidence that the same playbook and tools that rescued the Status Quo from well-deserved oblivion for the past six years will continue working splendidly in the years ahead.

Prime examples include the Federal Reserve, which clearly believes its own PR (we are omnipotent and the markets rise at our command) and China's leadership, which clearly believes that the strategies and tools that rescued China from implosion in 2008-09 can be applied to the entirely different problem of deflating the world's greatest quadruple-bubble in shadow banking, real estate, commodities and state-owned enterprises (SEOs).

The two problem-states could not be more different, and hence the Chinese leadership's bravado is classic hubris.

The legal definition of willful blindness is when someone attempts to evade responsibility by claiming ignorance of conditions that they should have known.One classic example is the drug mule who claims "I didn't know there was cocaine in this diaper bag, officer." The courts take a dim view of this bogus defense, and the public should take an equally dim view of leadership's claims that they couldn't possibly have foreseen the coming crisis in pensions and unfunded liabilities.

Our leaders' claims of ignorance are even more absurd than those of a drug mule, for leadership means grasping the nettle of what is obvious to everyone who glances at the basic facts. I have chosen pensions and unfunded liabilities as a prime example, but there are many other equally visible examples of our leadership's willful blindness.

Exhibit One in willful blindness: the political leadership of the state of California:Four shadows fall across California’s budget (S.F. Chronicle)
Though it may feel as if the budget is fixed, that’s a mirage created by a stock market that’s up more than 60 percent since Gov. Jerry Brown took office. A market drop of any meaningful size would crush California’s budget. 
The reality is that California’s budget will not be fixed until four fundamental problems are addressed: a capital-gains-dependent tax system, unfunded pension obligations, unfunded state retiree health care obligations and explosive growth in Medi-Cal spending.
In other words, citizens are paying more but getting less, and because of the growth in retirement and health care obligations, they will get even less going forward — and all that is true even if the market keeps going up. When the stock market declines and the state reports deficits, Californians will feel as if they are on a roller coaster without a seat belt. 
Even extension of the temporary tax increases won’t help because — you guessed it — more money will go to additional spending on pensions, retiree health benefits and Medi-Cal. That’s simply the unavoidable outcome when elected officials choose to make enormous unfunded retirement promises to government employees and to provide health care for one-third of the state’s citizens. 
To repeat, California’s budget cannot be fixed until the Fundamental Four are fixed.
The state's political leadership claims to be ready for any future collapse in tax revenues via a new "rainy day fund." But not only is the rainy day fund woefully meager, it is designed to be stripmined long before any real funding crisis takes hold of the state's throat.

This playbook of phony "solutions" and public-relations "fixes" is part and parcel of our leadership's Willful Ignorance. Garsh, we're stunned our fixes didn't actually fix the real problem. But the phony fixes were designed specifically to avoid solving the real problem, as that would require stepping on the toes of vested interests, and that is politically verboten.

Last but certainly not least, we have desperation, perhaps best expressed in the classic leadership phrase, When it becomes serious, you have to lie. Jean-Claude Juncker simply gave voice to what the world's leaders practice on a daily basis, because it's always serious.

Euroland's leadership has a special flair for desperation. Whatever it takes, spoken out of pure desperation, backed by nothing but the pressing need to project a plan and a power that did not exist, is a classic. Now we have reassurances (equally backed by the need to lie and desperation) that the exit of Greece from the euro and the complete repudiation of all the billions of euros in loans extended to Greece will have no effect on Euroland. Uh, right.

Japan is in a class of its own in terms of pursuing policies of pure desperation. Abenomics is nothing but desperation writ large on Keynesian parchment.

The Federal Reserve's days of desperation lie just ahead. When interest rates can't be pushed any lower, when risk assets can't be pushed any higher, when the U.S. dollar's ascent cannot be stopped, then we'll see the Fed issue the same sort of painfully desperate statements as their central banker compatriots spew on a near-daily basis.

Issuing lies and pursuing willful blindness is not leadership: it's failure on a grand scale. 



Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy(Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20)
go to Kindle edition
Are you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $20

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers(25 minutes, YouTube) 



NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.

Thank you, Helen S.C. ($10), for yet another splendidly generous contribution to this site-- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

Read more...

Thursday, January 01, 2015

Of Two Minds in 2015

It is clear that we need both practical plans of action for individuals and households and systemic alternatives to the present dysfunctional and doomed status quo.


Occasionally readers inquire about the meaning of this blog's title, Of Two Minds. There are several answers, but the primary one is: Of Two Minds is the synthesis of two minds--yours and mine.

Longtime readers know that from the inception of the blog ten years ago in May 2005, I have published/incorporated (with credit) an amazing spectrum of reader commentaries and analyses, from long-form essays to short paragraphs.

The advance of my own knowledge depends directly on readers' commentaries, critiques and analyses, and the network of global correspondents that is Of Two Minds' primary asset serves the expansion of all readers' understanding of our troubled times.

In other words, all the other minds that contribute experiences, ideas and explanations advance our collective knowledge, in effect leveraging an enormous network to the benefit of all participants/readers.

In this way, I consider Of Two Minds a working example of New Media Journalism, as it is both individual and global in a way that was not possible prior to the Internet. Newspapers had stringers/free-lancers in various capital cities, but communications from these nodes to the center were too slow and hierarchical to duplicate the non-corporate, non-institutional model of journalism/commentary that is our work in progress here.

It's a one-person shop here, and so there are severe limits of time and wetware bandwidth on what I can accomplish in any given hour, day, week, month or year. But these limits do not constrain the extraordinary collective intelligence of the site's thousands of correspondents/readers.

The site has collected nearly 50 million page views in its first decade, and the content has collected tens of millions of other views on sites that republish our work, including Zero Hedge, Peak Prosperity, David Stockman's ContraCorner, Financial Sense, Seeking Alpha, Max Keiser, Washington's Blog and many others.

The other meaning implicit in Of Two Minds is that I am not dogmatic or ideological or married to any position or solution. I change my mind when presented with superior experience, knowledge or conceptual blueprints. Even when I am persuaded that an analysis presented here has got it right, I remain of two minds in the sense that I may be wrong, or have overlooked a key dynamic, or simply don't yet have some critical conceptual tool in hand.

I see Of Two Minds as a free tool anyone can use to better understand our complex, dynamic world. There are thousands of pages of content here, from foolish bits of whimsy and poems to songs, videos, interviews, analyses, commentaries and charts. Please explore the site's Archives for a taste of the loosely organized offerings.

Of Two Minds has several thematic interests. One is to be skeptical of official narratives, as these inevitably justify and support the status quo arrangement that serves the interests of a powerful few at the expense of the many.

Another is to sketch out positive, practical courses of action for individuals and households within the current arrangement. This is goal of my books Survival+: Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation, An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times, Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It and Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

A third theme is to present systemic/structural alternatives to the current arrangement, a project represented by my books The Nearly Free University and the Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education, Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change and Weblogs & New Media: Marketing in Crisis.

It is clear that we need both practical plans of action for individuals and households and systemic alternatives to the present dysfunctional and doomed status quo.

This blog is my modest attempt to further both goals in ways that are accessible to everyone with an Internet connection.

On this first day of 2015, I want to thank those financial contributors who have supported the site throughout 2014, and especially those who renew their financial support like clockwork in January of every year. It is you stalwart financial supporters that keep the site going. Thank you for contributing your hard-earned money to this often-Quixotic project.

This includes the subscribers to the weekly Musings Reports ($5 per month or $50/year) who consistently support the site despite the thin gruel of reward.

In 2015, the site will focus on a fourth topic: new tools for alleviating poverty on a global scale. Yes, it's possible, and yes, it's practical. More to come on all fronts--thank you for sharing the journey.







Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy(Kindle, $9.95)(print, $20)
go to Kindle editionAre you like me? Ever since my first summer job decades ago, I've been chasing financial security. Not win-the-lottery, Bill Gates riches (although it would be nice!), but simply a feeling of financial control. I want my financial worries to if not disappear at least be manageable and comprehensible.And like most of you, the way I've moved toward my goal has always hinged not just on having a job but a career.

You don't have to be a financial blogger to know that "having a job" and "having a career" do not mean the same thing today as they did when I first started swinging a hammer for a paycheck.

Even the basic concept "getting a job" has changed so radically that jobs--getting and keeping them, and the perceived lack of them--is the number one financial topic among friends, family and for that matter, complete strangers.

So I sat down and wrote this book: Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy.

It details everything I've verified about employment and the economy, and lays out an action plan to get you employed.

I am proud of this book. It is the culmination of both my practical work experiences and my financial analysis, and it is a useful, practical, and clarifying read.

Test drive the first section and see for yourself.     Kindle, $9.95     print, $20

"I want to thank you for creating your book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. It is rare to find a person with a mind like yours, who can take a holistic systems view of things without being captured by specific perspectives or agendas. Your contribution to humanity is much appreciated."
Laura Y.

Gordon Long and I discuss The New Nature of Work: Jobs, Occupations & Careers(25 minutes, YouTube) 





NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.


Thank you, Jay H. ($20), for your marvelously generous contribution to this site-- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

Read more...

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