Sunday, January 03, 2016

2016 Theme #1: The Loss of Great Power Leverage

This week I am addressing themes I see playing out in 2016.
A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the decline of Great Power leverage.
Once a nation's civil society--broadly speaking, the institutions of social cohesion--has been shredded so that power rests in the hands of the few, the nations becomes exquisitely vulnerable to coups and regime change.
As the seminal book Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook (1968) explained, coups are a function of the concentration of power: if political power (and by extension of that leverage, economic/financial power) has been concentrated into the hands of a few, changing governments (and indeed, entire systems of control) is greatly simplified: kill, imprison or exile this handful of insiders, and the pyramid below will be yours.
This vulnerability makes any nation run by a small clique a very tempting target to Great Powers and neighboring nations seeking to become regional powers.
Nations with diverse civil societies--by definition, societies with a tolerance for dissent and multiple circles of civil, political, religious and economic power--cannot easily be captured by coups, as power is too diversified to be consolidated in a few hours by a tiny clique or the agents of a foreign power.
So by stripping their social orders of dissent and diverse circles of power, dictators and monarchs create a vulnerability to external meddling that would not otherwise existed.
Those nations with oil wealth have reaped the sorry harvests of The Oil Curse, the fatal tendency of corrupt elites to use this hydrocarbon wealth to reward their cronies and provide enough social welfare (bread and circuses) to keep the restive masses compliant.
Stripped of capital and talent by the dominance of the oil sector, the rest of the economy stagnates and withers, leaving the nation highly vulnerable to any decline in oil revenues--from either a decline in production or in the price of oil (or both).
These two conditions have left the non-Elite populations in oil-dependent Mideast nations with few opportunities for steady employment, which is the cornerstone of positive social roles.
Though it's easy to focus on foreign meddling/intervention in the region, we shouldn't overlook the underlying source of instability and Great Power meddling: the decades-long destruction of civil society by these nations' elites to secure their power.
Ironically, once these tiny elites lose their grip and the nation fragments, it becomes much more difficult to impose one's will on the remains of the social order and economy. Ultimately, this is the reason why the U.S. has withdrawn from direct "nation-building"--it's much easier to topple or prop up a dictator and his tiny clique of cronies than it is to rebuild a civil society and economy destroyed by corrupt elites milking their nation's oil.
The blowback/karma from suppressing or dismantling civil society is conflict and/or coup, and an open invitation to Great Power intervention: look at the juicy leverage offered by the concentration of power in the hands of the few at the expense of the many.
As civil societies in the Mideast fall apart, the leverage of Great Powers declines accordingly. When dictators and tiny elites lose their grip, a coup can only change those who have lost the leverage of control. A coup takes hours or days, but rebuilding a destroyed civil society takes decades.
My new book is #6 in Amazon's Kindle ebooks > Business & Money > International Economics: A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All. The Kindle edition is $$9.95 and the print edition is currently discounted to $21.60.

NOTE: Contributions/subscriptions are acknowledged in the order received. Your name and email remain confidential and will not be given to any other individual, company or agency.
Thank you, John B. ($100), for your outrageously generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.
Thank you, Stephen J. ($25), for yet another fabulously generous contribution to this site -- I am greatly honored by your steadfast support and readership.

Terms of Service

All content on this blog is provided by Trewe LLC for informational purposes only. The owner of this blog makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information on this site or found by following any link on this site. The owner will not be liable for any errors or omissions in this information nor for the availability of this information. The owner will not be liable for any losses, injuries, or damages from the display or use of this information. These terms and conditions of use are subject to change at anytime and without notice.


Our Privacy Policy:


Correspondents' email is strictly confidential. This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative). If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly. Websites and blog links on the site's blog roll are posted at my discretion.


PRIVACY NOTICE FOR EEA INDIVIDUALS


This section covers disclosures on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) for users residing within EEA only. GDPR replaces the existing Directive 95/46/ec, and aims at harmonizing data protection laws in the EU that are fit for purpose in the digital age. The primary objective of the GDPR is to give citizens back control of their personal data. Please follow the link below to access InvestingChannel’s General Data Protection Notice. https://stg.media.investingchannel.com/gdpr-notice/


Notice of Compliance with The California Consumer Protection Act
This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by a third-party advertising network (Investing Channel) may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising. If you do not want any personal information that may be collected by third-party advertising to be sold, please follow the instructions on this page: Limit the Use of My Sensitive Personal Information.


Regarding Cookies:


This site does not collect digital data from visitors or distribute cookies. Advertisements served by third-party advertising networks such as Investing Channel may use cookies or collect information from visitors for the purpose of Interest-Based Advertising; if you wish to opt out of Interest-Based Advertising, please go to Opt out of interest-based advertising (The Network Advertising Initiative) If you have other privacy concerns relating to advertisements, please contact advertisers directly.


Our Commission Policy:

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. I also earn a commission on purchases of precious metals via BullionVault. I receive no fees or compensation for any other non-advertising links or content posted on my site.

  © Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP